Introducing Valuation Models! 
Key Takeaways:
- First Solar stock could potentially reach ~$435/share by the end of 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- That implies a total return of 152.9% from today’s price of $172/share, with an annualized return of 45.7% over the next 2.5 years.
- First Solar operates as America’s largest domestic solar manufacturer, utilizing vertically integrated thin-film technology and maintaining a strong backlog despite tariff headwinds.
First Solar (FSLR) is a leading American solar technology company that designs and manufactures photovoltaic solar modules using proprietary thin-film semiconductor technology. It operates manufacturing facilities in the United States, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
First Solar benefits from its unique position as the only U.S.-headquartered solar manufacturer of scale, with an extensive domestic supply chain and differentiated CadTel-based technology that doesn’t rely on Chinese crystalline silicon supply chains.
With a 66.3 gigawatt contracted backlog worth $19.8 billion and expanding U.S. manufacturing capacity exceeding 14 gigawatts by 2026, First Solar remains positioned as America’s premier solar manufacturing play, despite near-term tariff challenges.
Here’s why FSLR stock could return over 46% annually through 2027 and potentially continue exceptional performance through 2030.
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What the Model Says for FSLR Stock
We analyzed First Solar’s potential using valuation assumptions based on the company’s domestic manufacturing advantage and long-term growth in solar demand.
Based on assumptions of 17.6% annual revenue growth, 43% operating margins, and modest multiple expansion, the model estimates First Solar stock could rise from $171.93/share to $434.76/share.
That represents a 153% total return and a 46% annualized return over the next 2.5 years.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for FSLR stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 17.6%
First Solar delivered Q1 results with 2.9 gigawatts of module sales and maintained a massive 66.3 gigawatt backlog.
Despite tariff-related guidance reductions, its domestic manufacturing expansion and strong long-term demand fundamentals support sustained growth.
2. Operating Margins: 43%
First Solar benefits from exceptional profitability driven by Section 45X manufacturing tax credits, premium pricing for domestic content, and highly efficient thin-film technology.
We project continued margin strength as domestic capacity scales and policy support remains.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 14x
First Solar trades at reasonable multiples relative to its strategic value as the leading solar company in America.
We assume modest expansion as the market recognizes its defensive moat and policy-protected position in a reshoring environment.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
TIKR’s valuation tool allows investors to test a wide range of outcomes based on how FSLR stock performs through 2030 under different scenarios (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Policy headwinds and competitive pressure → 11% annual returns
- Mid Case: Steady domestic expansion and policy support → 16% annual returns
- High Case: Accelerated reshoring and premium positioning → 22% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, First Solar offers great returns, while the upside scenario could deliver extraordinary gains if policy tailwinds accelerate domestic manufacturing advantages.
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TIKR Takeaway
First Solar represents a compelling combination of domestic manufacturing leadership, technology differentiation, and policy protection in America’s energy transition.
FSLR stock stands out as the premier play on U.S. solar manufacturing reshoring and energy security priorities.
This clean energy stock is best suited for investors seeking exposure to renewable energy infrastructure, companies benefiting from industrial policy support, and businesses with defensive moats against international competition.
The combination of massive contracted backlog, expanding domestic capacity, and strategic policy positioning makes First Solar an attractive consideration for growth-oriented portfolios focused on America’s energy independence and manufacturing renaissance.
Is FSLR stock worth buying today? Use TIKR’s Valuation Model and analyst forecasts to see if it looks undervalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
