Key Takeaways for Energy Transfer Stock as of August 2026
- YTD Rally: Energy Transfer stock has climbed 29% since January, driven by two consecutive EBITDA guidance raises totaling ~$1.25B at the midpoint.
- Q2 Earnings Beat: Adjusted EBITDA hit ~$5.1B in Q2 2026, up 31% YoY, on record Midstream, NGL export, and crude transportation volumes.
- Street Positioning: 14 buys, 5 outperforms, 2 holds, and 1 no opinion, with the $25 mean target sitting 15% above the $21 close.
- TIKR Model: The mid-case targets $29 by December 2030, implying 36% total return.
Why Energy Transfer Stock Has Gained 29% in 2026 on Two Guidance Raises
Energy Transfer (ET) stock has gained 29% since early January, climbing from a $16 close at year-end 2025 to $21 by the August 28 close. The engine behind the move: two consecutive raises to full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance, which lifted the midpoint by a cumulative $1.25 billion from where the company started the year.
The Q2 earnings report on August 4 delivered the second raise. Energy Transfer posted adjusted EBITDA of $5.1 billion for the quarter, up 31% from $3.9 billion a year earlier, on record throughput in Midstream gathering, NGL transportation, NGL exports, and crude oil transportation. The company pushed its full-year adjusted EBITDA range to $18.8 billion to $19.1 billion, $500 million above the prior quarter’s midpoint.
CFO Dylan Bramhall broke down the stacking pattern on the Q2 earnings call: “We increased guidance in the first quarter by $750 million, and that was really related to approximately $600 million in Q1 results and $150 million from just stronger performance that we saw continuing through the balance of the year in our business. And this quarter, we’re increasing another $550 million.” The second raise leaned more heavily on broad-based operational beats than on one-time market dislocations, with NGL, Midstream, Intrastate, and Crude each topping internal expectations by $100 million or more.
The 29% gain split between rising estimates and a re-rating. The NTM EV/EBITDA multiple expanded from 7.78x at year-end 2025 to 8.60x, above the three-year mean of 8.16x but well below the 9.18x peak from early 2025. The market is paying more per dollar of forward EBITDA than it was eight months ago, and it still hasn’t reached the premium the stock carried a year and a half ago.
New capacity is compounding the earnings ramp. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline, a major Permian natural gas egress project, entered commercial service ahead of schedule during Q2, with full Phase 1 capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day expected by September 1. Phase 2 remains on track for Q1 2027, and both phases are coming in under budget. The Mustang Draw I processing plant came online in June and already runs near capacity. Energy Transfer also hiked its quarterly distribution to $0.34 per unit in July, marking the nineteenth consecutive increase.
Accelerating EBITDA, growth projects entering service ahead of schedule at mid-teen returns, and a steadily growing distribution explain a 29% YTD run that still has not closed the gap to where the Street and TIKR value Energy Transfer stock.
Analysts Keep Raising Energy Transfer Stock Targets, But the Price Runs Faster
Wall Street currently splits 14 buys, 5 outperforms, 2 holds, and 1 no opinion on Energy Transfer stock. The mean target sits at $25, 15% above the $21 close, with 22 analysts publishing price targets.
That 15% gap looks generous until you track how it formed. At year-end 2025, the mean target stood at $22 against a $16 close, a 31% premium. Analysts have since raised the mean to $25, but the stock’s 29% rally compressed the ratio from 131% to 115%. Coverage grew from 20 estimates to 21 over the same period. Holds dropped from 3 to 2 while buys climbed from 12 to 14. The Street is repricing Energy Transfer stock higher, but the price has outrun the targets.
TIKR’s $29 Target Values Energy Transfer Stock at 36% Total Return Through 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Energy Transfer at $29 by December 2030, implying 36% total return from the current $21 price, or 7% annualized over 4.3 years.
A 7% annualized return from a midstream MLP with a distribution already yielding above 6% leaves modest room for price appreciation, pricing in steady growth rather than a re-rating.
The TIKR model’s $29 target sits $4 above the Street’s $25 mean. That gap reflects the growth backlog Energy Transfer outlined on the Q2 call: more than $5 billion in annual organic growth capital through 2029, contracted at mid-teen returns, with Hugh Brinson ahead of schedule and Desert Southwest progressing through permitting.
Should You Invest in Energy Transfer LP?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Energy Transfer LP stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Energy Transfer LP alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze ET stock on TIKR for Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
