Key Stats for LLY Stock
- Past week’s performance: 1.6%
- 52-week range: $716 to $1,293
- Valuation model target price: $1,834
- Implied upside: 54.9% over 2.3 years
Map Lilly’s obesity drug growth against 5 years of analyst estimates using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
A Weekly Insulin Joins Lilly’s Growing Lineup
Eli Lilly (LLY) shares rose about 1.6% over the past week after the FDA approved Onswik, a once-weekly insulin for adults with type 2 diabetes. Basal insulin is the long-acting background dose many patients inject every day. Onswik replaces those daily shots with a single weekly injection. Lilly plans to launch prefilled pens in the U.S. in the coming months.
Lilly also widened its pipeline through a research deal with China’s InnoCare worth up to $3.35 billion. Most of that sum depends on future milestones, so the upfront cost is small. However, a California jury ordered Lilly to pay Nektar Therapeutics $90 million over a past drug partnership. That amount is minor for a company guiding to at least $85 billion in revenue this year.
Confidence around the stock remains high. Q2 revenue jumped 48% to $23.0 billion as Mounjaro sales surged 91% to $9.9 billion. “Lilly’s momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance,” CEO David Ricks said with the results. Management now expects 2026 revenue of $85 billion to $87 billion.
Competition is the lingering worry. Novo Nordisk (NVO) said this week that CagriSema produced greater weight loss than a Lilly drug in diabetes patients, and Roche (ROG) reported 15.5% weight loss in a mid-stage trial. Going forward, investors will watch whether Lilly’s scale keeps it ahead as more obesity drugs reach patients.
Check the latest Wall Street targets for Lilly as obesity rivals multiply (It’s free) >>>
Growth Priced Below Lilly’s Own History
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 20.5%
- Operating Margins: 50.1%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 28.4x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $1,834, implying a 54.9% total return from the current share price of $1,183 and an annualized return of 21.3% over the next 2.3 years.
This is a revenue acceleration story. Lilly’s sales grew 44.7% over the past year and 21.6% per year over five years. So a 20.5% growth rate through 2028 assumes a natural slowdown rather than a collapse.
Margins do the heavy lifting. The model’s 50.1% operating margin looks far above last year’s 31.8%, but large one-time charges for acquired research weighed on that figure. Management’s 2026 guidance calls for a performance margin of 49% to 50.5%, a measure that strips out those charges. Therefore, the model simply matches the company’s own outlook.
Valuation is where the stock looks attractive. An exit P/E of 28.4x equals today’s forward multiple and sits well below Lilly’s 5-year average of 40.0x. In other words, the model doesn’t need investors to pay more for each dollar of earnings.
A 21.3% annual return clears the 15% level that signals real undervaluation. By contrast, Novo expects its adjusted sales to decline by up to 6% this year. That growth gap explains Lilly’s premium and supports further upside.
Run your own Lilly scenarios with bull, base, and bear inputs in seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Lilly Versus the Obesity Challengers
Novo Nordisk (NVO) remains Lilly’s main rival in GLP-1 medicines, the drug class behind today’s weight-loss boom. These drugs mimic a gut hormone that controls blood sugar and appetite. In Q2, Novo’s adjusted sales grew 7% at constant currency, while Lilly’s revenue jumped 48%. Novo also guides for 2026 adjusted sales between flat and a 6% decline.
Profitability tells a similar story. Novo’s Q2 adjusted operating profit of DKK 33.4 billion on DKK 78.5 billion of sales implies a margin near 42.5%. Lilly, meanwhile, guides to a 49% to 50.5% performance margin. So Lilly is now both the faster grower and the more profitable operator.
Pills are the next battleground. Novo’s Wegovy pill passed 2 million U.S. prescriptions within about four months of its January launch. Lilly’s Foundayo pill launched in April, and its total prescriptions doubled in the month before Lilly’s Q2 call. Novo’s CEO believes pills could capture half the weight-loss market by 2030.
Smaller challengers are coming too. Roche’s experimental drug produced 15.5% weight loss, and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) reported durable results this month. Yet Lilly’s retatrutide delivered average weight loss of up to 71.2 pounds in a Phase 3 trial. That efficacy lead, plus manufacturing scale, forms Lilly’s moat.
Examine whether Lilly’s $2.8 billion AtaiBeckley deal can broaden growth beyond GLP-1 drugs >>>
What’s Driving LLY Stock Going Forward?
The EASD diabetes meeting runs from September 28 to October 2, giving Lilly a stage for new data. Q3 results then arrive on October 29. Investors will look for another beat against the $85 billion to $87 billion revenue guide.
Retatrutide is the biggest pipeline catalyst. Lilly plans to file for approval in Q1 2027 across obesity, sleep apnea, and knee osteoarthritis pain. Citi said this week that these next-generation efforts could tip the market further in Lilly’s favor.
Supply is another lever. Lilly broke ground in Houston on its fifth U.S. plant for active pharmaceutical ingredients, the raw drug substance inside each dose. More capacity lets Lilly meet global demand, and Mounjaro sales outside the U.S. rose 172% in Q2.
Pricing remains the key risk. Realized prices fell 13% in Q2 as lower Mounjaro and Zepbound prices offset part of the volume gains. Going forward, volume must keep outrunning price cuts for margins to stay near 50%.
Screen Lilly against every major drugmaker on growth and margins (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in Eli Lilly?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up LLY, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track LLY alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze LLY stock on TIKR Free→
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
