Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly shares rose 11% in the week through Oct. 30 to a record close after a third-quarter beat and a $5.5 billion guidance raise.
- Volume growth still more than covers Lilly’s price cuts, and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic lost a head-to-head trial to Lilly’s experimental retatrutide.
- About $2 billion of this year’s revenue won’t recur, raising the bar for 2027, and deal charges trimmed EPS guidance.
- Lilly trades below its usual forward multiple, and its first 2027 guidance is the next test.
Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 11% in the week through Friday, Oct. 30, to a record close, after a third-quarter beat and a $5.5 billion guidance raise. That followed a 10% gain in the week through Oct. 20. And Novo Nordisk (NVO) watched its Ozempic lose a head-to-head trial to Lilly’s experimental next obesity shot.
Patients more than make up for the price cuts
Lilly beat on every major line of the quarter:
- Revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, against $22.62 billion expected.
- Non-GAAP EPS was $7.48, against $6.61 expected, even after $4.57 a share of acquired IPR&D charges.
- Volume rose 53%, while realized prices fell 15%.
- 2026 revenue guidance rose to $91-$92 billion, above the $88.74 billion consensus.
- Those IPR&D charges cut full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.00-$36.00, from $35.50-$36.50.
CEO David Ricks said Lilly couldn’t have known how fast patients would sign up through Medicare’s new GLP-1 Bridge program, or how many middle-income patients abroad would pay cash. Both went its way: “we’re beating on the up, that’s better than missing on the down.”
Novo loses another round
On Oct. 28, Lilly said retatrutide cut A1C by 2.2% in adults with type 2 diabetes, against 1.8% for Ozempic 2 mg, with more than double the weight loss.
Novo is already paying for the price war: lower prices cut its U.S. sales of injectable Wegovy by 22% at constant currency in the second quarter. Its early-November report will show if the Wegovy pill can win ground back.
2027 starts in a $2 billion hole
CFO Lucas Montarce said about $2 billion of this year’s revenue won’t recur. Analysts still expect revenue of about $104 billion in 2027:
That’s about 14% growth on the guidance midpoint, or closer to 16% without the $2 billion. Ricks expects fewer surprises from here, which points to smaller raises.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Eli Lilly. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Eli Lilly, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Eli Lilly’s Analyst Ratings
Still not priced for perfection
Lilly trades below its usual forward multiple:
At about 31x on Thursday, it sat under its 40x five-year average.
Bottom line: as long as volume grows faster than prices fall, Lilly still looks like a buy here.
The next tests are the Dec. 7 investor update and Lilly’s first 2027 guidance early next year. A range well short of $104 billion would mean volume can no longer cover both the lost $2 billion and lower prices.
So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
