Key Stats for Coherent Stock
- Current Price: $210.32
- Target Price (Mid): ~$794
- Street Target: ~$394
- Potential Total Return: ~278%
- Annualized IRR: ~33% / year
What Happened?
Coherent (COHR) fell 11.34% to $210.32 on Friday, October 30, as disappointing results from Intel and Amazon hit AI hardware stocks, with no Coherent-specific news. Lumentum (LITE) fell 8.57%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 10.05%, two days after Bloomberg reported that Marvell is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum.
Amazon kept its plan for about $220 billion of 2026 capital spending even as its free cash flow turned more negative, and the selling spread through the tech supply chain. Coherent reports fiscal first-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, November 4, one day before Lumentum, so it speaks first while the market prices a major rival as a takeover target.
Lumentum Is Worth More on Less Than Half the Revenue
Coherent booked $7.12 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026, up 22.5% as reported. Lumentum booked $3.01 billion for the same June-ending year, up 83.2%. Yet at Friday’s closes, Lumentum was worth about $76 billion and Coherent $41.4 billion. Lumentum stood near $83 billion before the Bloomberg report.
Two reasons stand out. One is growth. The other is gross margin: Lumentum’s non-GAAP gross margin reached 50.4% in its June quarter, against Coherent’s 40.2%, so it keeps about 10 cents more of each sales dollar.
Marvell designs the digital signal processors inside high-speed optical modules, and Lumentum makes the lasers. Bloomberg said a deal could come as soon as the week after its October 28 report, and as of October 30 neither company had confirmed the talks. The same day, B. Riley cut its Coherent target to $262 from $297, with a Neutral rating, well below the Street’s mean of about $394.
Coherent Is Selling the Whole Link, Tied to No Single Chipmaker
At an optics conference in Spain on September 21, CEO Jim Anderson said other vendors supply the laser or the fiber, but “it’s really only Coherent that’s got that full portfolio that we can bring together, stitch together in a single solution.”
A Marvell-owned Lumentum would pair lasers with Marvell’s own chips. TIKR noted on October 29 that this would leave Coherent as the big laser maker not tied to a chip designer. Coherent’s executives pitch a related neutrality, across architectures. Chief Technology Officer Julie Eng said Coherent is a founder of the Open CPX multi-source agreement, an industry effort to build a common connector across vendors. Because Coherent has all of these technologies, she said, “we can give you an honest assessment of all the choices if you tell us your architectural requirements.”
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Coherent. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Coherent, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Coherent’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $210.32
- Target Price (Mid): ~$794
- Potential Total Return: ~278%
- Annualized IRR: ~33% / year
The mid case fits because its 10-year assumptions already have Coherent’s P/E shrinking about 9% a year, so the return rests on earnings rather than a richer multiple. Those assumptions call for revenue growth around 25% a year and net margin around 21%. The primary risk is margin: a Marvell-Lumentum pairing selling complete modules could hold Coherent’s gross margin near 40%. Faster co-packaged optics adoption would lift growth above that path, while a slower ramp would put the 25% assumption and the target at risk.
Conclusion
Coherent’s non-GAAP gross margin trails Lumentum’s by 10.2 points. A November 4 outlook that narrows that gap would back the full-chain pitch. A guide stuck near 40%, followed by a Marvell deal announcement, would leave Coherent the larger company by revenue, still valued as the smaller one. Lumentum’s November 5 report then shows whether its own margin keeps rising.
So what is Coherent stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Coherent could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Analyze Coherent on TIKR Free →
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
