Key Takeaways:
- AI Platform Momentum: AI Studio delivered solid sequential bookings growth with early self-serve traction.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, ASAN stock could reach $11.74 by January 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 14.6% from the current price of $10.25.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 7% growth over the next 2 years.
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Asana (ASAN) just reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $201 million, up 9% year-over-year and exceeding guidance. The company generated non-GAAP operating income of $16.3 million, with an 8% operating margin, exceeding expectations.
CEO Dan Rogers is executing a transformation centered on AI collaboration. The company launched AI teammates that work alongside human teams, with 30 beta customers already showing productivity gains.
Dollar-based net retention improved to 96%, with retention among monthly customers hitting a 12-month high.
Despite solid momentum in AI and improving retention metrics, Asana stock trades at $10.25, offering potential upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in human-AI collaboration.
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What the Model Says for Asana Stock
We analyzed Asana’s evolution into a platform for human-AI collaboration with enterprise-grade controls.
The company has pioneered three waves: collaborative work management, workflow automation, and now AI transformation.
Asana’s Work Graph provides the context AI needs to be effective—understanding who does what, by when, and why. This contextual advantage differentiates Asana from single-player copilots and point solutions.
- AI Studio and AI teammates address the fundamental gaps in most AI implementations today.
- They provide context through the Work Graph, checkpoints for human oversight, and controls ensuring AI agents follow the same governance as employees.
- Early customers report significant time savings—Morningstar completed two-week tasks in 10-12 hours using AI teammates.
Using a forecast of 8.9% annual revenue growth and 9.8% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $11.74 within 2 years. This assumes a 31x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression relative to Asana’s historical P/E, which has been in negative territory, as the company has historically been unprofitable. The 31x forward multiple reflects the market pricing in profitability improvements and AI platform adoption.
The real value lies in the AI transformation opportunity, which can expand margins and stabilize net retention rates.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ASAN stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 8.9%
Asana’s growth centers on AI platform adoption and market share expansion.
The company achieved solid progress with AI Studio, delivering sequential bookings growth, including early self-serve traction.
- Management launched 12 AI teammates—prebuilt collaborative agents for engineering, IT, marketing, operations, and PMO functions.
- Enterprise customers expanded meaningfully, with the $100,000+ cohort growing 15% year over year.
- Key wins included major healthcare providers, financial services firms, and a German government research agency.
- International revenue grew 12% year-over-year, outpacing the U.S. market’s 7% growth.
Management expects the tech vertical to stabilize after multiple quarters of headwinds. The multiproduct strategy with AI Studio and foundational service plans opens new budgets beyond seat-based pricing.
2. Operating margins: 27.1%
Asana is demonstrating disciplined profitability improvement.
The company delivered an 8% non-GAAP operating margin in Q3, a 12-percentage-point year-over-year improvement.
Management raised full-year margin guidance to 7%, up from 6% previously. With a 89% gross margin, the company enjoys strong operating leverage as it scales.
Cost optimization initiatives include geographic headcount optimization, vendor rationalization, and productivity improvements in sales and marketing. Management is reallocating spend toward higher-ROI areas, particularly the AI platform, while maintaining margins.
CFO Sonalee Parekh indicated multiyear margin expansion is achievable, with operating margins potentially reaching the 20s as the company approaches $1 billion in revenue.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 9.8x
The market currently values Asana at 31x forward earnings. We assume the P/E will remain steady at 31x over our forecast period.
As the company demonstrates profitable growth and AI platform traction, this valuation multiple appears sustainable.
Net retention improved for the second consecutive quarter, suggesting stabilization in the customer base. The tech sector headwinds that pressured growth are moderating.
The AI teammates launch positions Asana uniquely in the market. Industry analysts noted “no one is doing agentic like Asana” and called the multiplayer human-AI collaboration approach “unique in the market.”
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
AI platform adoption and retention trends will determine outcomes. Here’s how Asana stock might perform under different scenarios through January 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 7.3% and net income margins compress to 9.3%, investors could see a total return of 9.8% (2.4% annually).
- Mid Case: With 8.1% growth and 10.1% margins, we expect a total return of 39% (8.6% annually).
- High Case: If AI teammates accelerate adoption and Asana maintains 10.7% margins while growing at 8.9%, total returns could reach 71.6% (14.4% annually).
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The range reflects execution on the AI platform, net retention stabilization, and margin expansion.
In the worst case, AI adoption disappoints, or tech-sector weakness persists.
In the best case, AI teammates drive significant new business, and the company captures share in the agentic enterprise market.
How Much Upside Does Asana Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
