Key Takeaways
- David Tepper’s Appaloosa and five other big funds bought or added to Uber (UBER) in the quarter ended June 30, their latest 13Fs show, and the stock has fallen 8% since.
- Analysts expect Uber’s normalized EPS to more than double from 2025 to 2028, and they’ve barely changed those estimates since June 30.
- Uber trades at about 17x forward earnings, well below SAP (SAP) and Shopify (SHOP) and about level with Salesforce (CRM), with analysts’ average target 51% above the price.
- The funds look right: Uber is a buy before its Q3 report, with robotaxis and the debt behind its Delivery Hero deal the risks to watch.
Uber has some serious money behind it. David Tepper’s Appaloosa and five other big funds bought or added to the stock in the quarter ended June 30, according to their 13Fs for that quarter.
Since then, Uber has slipped 8% from its June 30 price. It’s 29% below its 52-week high, with its Q3 report due in early November. So is it a buy before earnings?
Tepper has company
Here’s what each fund held at June 30, from its 13F:
| Fund (its size) | Uber shares | Value at June 30 | Share of its 13F stocks | Change in the quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appaloosa (manages $20.4 billion) | 7.69 million | $555 million | 7.4% (No. 5) | +21% shares |
| Fundsmith (manages $18.5 billion) | 8.94 million | $645 million | 4.7% (No. 5) | New |
| Glenview Capital (manages $6.4 billion) | 1.79 million | $129 million | 2.6% (No. 12) | +23% shares |
| Nearwater Capital Markets ($5.8 billion in US stocks) | 2.18 million | $157 million | 2.7% (No. 9) | New |
| Dorsey Asset Management (manages $1.6 billion) | 1.76 million | $127 million | 8.1% (No. 6) | +62% shares |
| Shapiro Capital Management (manages $2.0 billion) | 477,340 | $34 million | 2.1% (No. 20) | New |
Terry Smith’s Fundsmith opened the largest new position of the six. Dorsey Asset Management leaned in hardest, with more of its 13F stocks in Uber than any of the others.
TIKR tracks 51 analysts on Uber. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Uber, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Uber’s Analyst Ratings
Analysts still see earnings more than doubling
The drop since June 30 didn’t come from analysts. They expect Uber’s normalized EPS to grow from $2.45 in 2025 to $5.51 in 2028, about 31% a year:
And they’ve barely touched those numbers since June 30. Through late October, the fiscal 2026 estimate was up 0.3% and fiscal 2028’s was up 2.2%.
In Q2, gross bookings rose 24% to $58.0 billion, and non-GAAP EPS rose 35% to $0.81. Free cash flow over the twelve months to June passed $10 billion.
Investors are paying less for those earnings, though. Uber trades at about 17x forward earnings. That’s near its lowest since its earnings turned positive, and well below its three-year average of 25x.
My read: investors are discounting two fears. Robotaxi fleets could sell rides on their own apps (Waymo’s partnership with Uber in Phoenix ended in June).
And Uber is paying for its $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero with cash and new debt. Buybacks fell to $518 million in Q2 as cash went to deals, management says.
In late October, DoorDash won the $17 billion Instacart deal after Uber reportedly walked away from talks.
Wall Street’s targets barely budged
Analysts have trimmed their Uber targets over the past year, but not by much. The average is $101, down from $109 a year ago:
The stock fell about a third over the same year, so that average now sits 51% above the price.
Even the lowest target, $70, is above it, and the highest is $150.
Cheap next to the big software names
Uber’s 17x also looks low beside the big application-software stocks. Shopify trades at about 74x forward earnings, and analysts expect its normalized EPS to grow about 32% a year from 2025 to 2028, almost exactly Uber’s pace.
Salesforce is about level with Uber at 15x, but analysts expect its EPS to grow about 14% a year through fiscal 2029.
SAP sits in between, at about 26x.
None of them has Uber’s upside either. Analysts’ average targets sit 27% above Salesforce’s price, 20% above SAP’s and 13% above Shopify’s. (Shopify is also one that six big funds sold before earnings.)
The funds look right
Both fears are fair. But management says autonomous rides are still under 0.5% of Uber’s trips. And Uber’s CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, bought $10 million of stock in September.
I’m with the funds: Uber is a buy before the report, at a multiple that already prices in plenty of bad news.
The Q3 report is the first test. Management guided to non-GAAP EPS of $0.84-$0.88 and gross bookings of $58.25 billion-$60.25 billion. Watch the buyback, too.
Management said on its Q2 call that repurchases would return to their usual pace within months, so a quarter back above $1 billion would show Delivery Hero hasn’t crowded them out.
And the six funds’ third-quarter 13Fs, due by Nov. 16, will show us who held on.
So what is Uber stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
