Key Stats for Credo Stock
- Current Price: $147.29
- Target Price (Mid): ~$470
- Street Target: ~$284
- Potential Total Return: ~219%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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What Happened?
Credo Technology Group (CRDO) fell 9.51% to $147.29 on October 23, the session after MaxLinear (MXL) told analysts it is going after Credo’s core cable market. Peers did not follow: Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 2.26%, and Astera Labs (ALAB) slipped 0.26%.
The drop capped a two-day slide of 19.2%. The first leg, a 10.70% fall on October 22, came alongside a broad AI chip selloff before MaxLinear reported, with Astera down 11.11% and Marvell down 8.70%. A Form 4 also shows CEO Bill Brennan sold 16,666 shares on October 19 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan he adopted on June 10, 2026.
MaxLinear Wants the Chip, Credo Sells the Cable
On MaxLinear’s October 22 earnings call, CEO Kishore Seendripu put Credo’s share of active electrical cables (AECs), the short copper links between AI servers and switches, at “93% or maybe 99%.” He said the market is diversifying as the engineering gets harder, and that MaxLinear should be able to reach 20% to 30% of 1.6T AECs within the next couple of years. He framed it cautiously, saying “we expect not to get a big share, let’s assume” before describing the plan.
That is a target, and the details narrow it. MaxLinear calls its approach “a pure silicon play,” selling chips to cable makers, so its revenue per cable will be smaller than Credo’s on a finished cable. It is planning around one or two large U.S. data centers, with initial revenue from its Annapurna chips in 2027 and a stronger ramp in 2028.
That timing lands mostly after Credo’s fiscal 2027, which ends in April 2027 with consensus revenue of around $2.5 billion. The exposure sits in fiscal 2028 and 2029, where analysts model around $3.9 billion and around $5.1 billion. As of October 24, the fiscal 2028 estimate sat about 0.2% above its September 30 level, with one trading session since the call.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on Credo Technology. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Credo Technology, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Credo Technology’s Analyst Ratings
Brennan Named the Moat Before MaxLinear Named the Target
At the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 10, Brennan called AECs “the bulk of our business right now” and was asked whether new entrants were gaining traction. Credo has “decided to own the entire system solution,” he said, from the SerDes and chip to firmware, qualification, and the supply chain. “We’re the single throat to choke when it comes to delivering the SKUs that our customer wants,” he added, calling the approach “probably our biggest competitive moat.”
MaxLinear’s plan splits that responsibility between a chip supplier and a cable maker. A hyperscaler that values one accountable vendor has reason to stay with Credo, while one that wants a cheaper second source gives MaxLinear an opening. Brennan also said he can “build a great case for a continued expansion” of AECs, “especially as we go to 1.6T.”
Most of the valuation reset came before MaxLinear spoke. Credo’s forward P/E fell from about 27x on September 30 to about 22x at the October 22 close and about 20x on October 23, near Nvidia (NVDA) at about 17x and Broadcom (AVGO) at about 19x, while next-twelve-month revenue estimates barely moved.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $147.29
- Target Price (Mid): ~$470
- Potential Total Return: ~219%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
The mid case is the one the model card reports for April 30, 2031, and it uses the October 23 close as its entry price. It is a scenario, not a forecast.
- Margin Driver: Adjusted gross margin, guided to 67% to 69% for the fiscal second quarter
- Primary Risk: A hyperscaler sourcing 1.6T cables built on MaxLinear or other third-party chips
- Upside: MaxLinear stays limited to one or two data centers
- Downside: Cuts to the fiscal 2028 and 2029 revenue estimates
Conclusion
The deciding number is the roughly $3.9 billion fiscal 2028 revenue estimate. If analysts hold it after Credo’s fiscal second-quarter report, for the quarter ending around October 31, they are treating MaxLinear as a second source at the margin. A cut that management ties to 1.6T cable share would be the first sign the 20% to 30% target is landing.
So what is Credo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
