Key Takeaways
- Craig-Hallum cut its Oklo price target to $27 from $53 on Nov. 9 and kept its Hold rating, three days after Oklo reported a narrower third-quarter loss than expected.
- The firm gave Oklo credit for progress on its projects but warned that its capital needs could be hard to meet.
- Analysts expect Oklo to burn about $6.3 billion of free cash flow from 2026 through 2030, against $3.13 billion of cash and securities at Sept. 30.
- Craig-Hallum’s call looks right: until Oklo signs a binding power contract or gives a cost for its first plant, the stock’s current price is fair.
Oklo (OKLO) just beat Wall Street’s expectations for the quarter, and Craig-Hallum responded by cutting its price target nearly in half.
On Nov. 9, analyst Eric Stine lowered his target to $27 from $53 and kept a Hold rating. That’s just 4% above today’s price of $26.08, for a stock that’s down 76% over the past year.
A narrower loss, and the same bill
Oklo’s third-quarter loss came to $0.22 a share, against the $0.27 analysts expected. Cash and securities rose to $3.13 billion at Sept. 30 from $3.0 billion at June 30, but only because Oklo kept selling stock. It sold $2.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Management kept its 2026 guidance for $400 million to $500 million of plant spending and still gave no cost for its first Aurora plant in Idaho.
Craig-Hallum is worried about the money
Craig-Hallum gave Oklo credit for progress on its projects but warned that its capital needs could be hard to meet. The firm raised the same concern in March, when it cut its target to $71 from $87. H.C. Wainwright, on the other hand, kept its Buy rating and $90 target.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Does $27 add up?
Twenty-five analysts cover Oklo, and their mean target is $56, more than double the share price. But their estimates keep getting worse: the consensus loss for 2027 has grown to $1.13 a share from $0.96 90 days ago. Analysts also don’t expect much revenue for years:
That $39.2 million for 2028 is less than a tenth of what Oklo plans to spend on plants this year alone.
Analysts’ models also have Oklo burning about $6.3 billion of free cash flow from 2026 through 2030. That’s roughly twice the $3.13 billion it holds, so the rest has to come from new shares or debt. At a market value of $5.1 billion, investors are already paying roughly $2 billion more than Oklo’s cash for a company that hasn’t put a price on its first plant.
Craig-Hallum has this one right
Oklo is making progress, and a binding power contract with Meta for its Ohio campus would go a long way toward solving the funding problem. Until that contract arrives, though, every reactor gets paid for with new stock. Craig-Hallum’s $27 says Oklo is fairly priced here, and I agree, at least until Oklo gives a cost for its first Idaho plant. Its fiscal-year report, expected in March, is the next chance to get one.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
