Brown & Brown, Inc. (NYSE: BRO) has fallen sharply this year, now trading near $76/share after a 31% slide from its highs. The pullback reflects broader weakness across insurance brokers following several years of strong gains. Yet despite the decline, the company continues to post healthy growth, resilient margins, and steady cash generation.
Recently, Brown & Brown reported solid quarterly results, with revenue and earnings once again exceeding expectations. Management highlighted steady growth across retail and national programs, as well as continued progress in reinsurance. The company also announced a dividend increase and new share repurchase authorization, underscoring confidence in its long-term cash flow and disciplined growth strategy.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Brown & Brown could trade by 2027. Using consensus forecasts and TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model, we outline how the company’s fundamentals, valuation, and capital strategy could shape its stock performance over the next few years.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Brown & Brown trades at about $76/share today. The average analyst price target is $96/share, which points to around 26% upside. Forecasts show a balanced range of expectations:
- High estimate: ~$114/share
- Low estimate: ~$79/share
- Median target: ~$94/share
- Ratings: 3 Buys, 1 Outperform, 9 Holds, 1 Underperform
It looks like analysts see modest room for gains, reflecting steady fundamentals but limited re-rating potential in the near term. For investors, the pullback has brought valuation closer to fair value, yet Brown & Brown’s recurring revenue, strong margins, and disciplined acquisition strategy still support gradual compounding. The stock’s current pricing suggests expectations are cautious but stable.
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Brown & Brown: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals appear solid and well supported by consistent performance:
- Revenue growth: Projected to rise about 17% through 2027
- Operating margin: Expected to remain near 28%
- Valuation: Shares trade around 17× forward earnings, slightly below the 5-year average
- Fair value estimate: Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 17× forward P/E suggests ~$100/share by 2027
- Return potential: That implies roughly 31% total return, or about 13% annualized
These figures suggest Brown & Brown can continue delivering steady compounding without relying on aggressive growth assumptions. For investors, the stock offers a blend of quality and value, with room for gradual multiple expansion if margins hold and acquisition activity stays consistent.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Brown & Brown continues to prove itself as one of the most reliable operators in the insurance brokerage industry. Its decentralized structure gives local offices the autonomy to grow while leveraging company-wide scale in technology, analytics, and carrier relationships.
Steady organic growth, recurring commissions, and a consistent stream of bolt-on acquisitions provide dependable earnings visibility. For investors, this combination of scale and stability positions Brown & Brown as a durable compounder even in slower markets.
Bear Case: Valuation and Growth Risks
Despite these strengths, Brown & Brown’s valuation already reflects much of its quality. Without an acceleration in organic growth or new acquisition catalysts, the upside could take time to materialize.
Competition from both large and mid-sized brokers could pressure pricing and margins, while a slower M&A environment might temper earnings growth. For investors, the risk is not in business resilience but in return potential if growth temporarily levels off.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Brown & Brown Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests Brown & Brown could trade near $100/share by 2027. That would represent about a 31% total return, or roughly 13% annualized from today’s price.
While that outcome assumes steady execution, stronger upside could come from faster organic expansion or more accretive acquisitions. Without that, investors should expect solid but measured returns.
For investors, Brown & Brown looks like a dependable long-term compounder. Its balance of recurring revenue, disciplined capital allocation, and proven management execution provides a credible path to low double-digit returns through 2027.
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