Key Takeaways
- BridgeBio Pharma closed at $65.35 on Oct. 9, 28% below its July high, and Barclays, which reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Oct. 7, has a $156 target, 139% above that close.
- Since the peak, BridgeBio has posted a wider-than-expected second-quarter loss and warned that Attruby’s pool of switch patients is shrinking, even as Attruby’s U.S. sales reached $222.4 million in the quarter.
- Barclays’ target implies 23.5x forward sales, more than double the stock’s current 9.8x and well above its five-year low of 9.3x.
- $156 is plausible but stretched, and the FDA’s Nov. 27 decision on BBP-418 is the next real test.
BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) closed at $65.35 on Oct. 9, 28% below its July 9 high. Barclays thinks it can more than double from here.
On Oct. 7, Barclays analyst Eliana Merle kept her Overweight rating and shaved a dollar off her target, to $156. That’s 139% above Friday’s close, on a stock that has spent three months going the other way.
So who’s right, the chart or the analyst? I ran the numbers to find out.
What knocked BridgeBio off its July high
The bears got their opening on Aug. 10, when BridgeBio reported second-quarter results. On the surface, Attruby looked great: U.S. net product revenue hit $222.4 million, up from $71.5 million a year earlier. Underneath, two things bothered the market.
First, the loss came in at $0.78 a share, wider than the $0.64 Wall Street expected, according to Zacks. Second, Chief Commercial Officer Matt Outten warned on the earnings call that the pool of patients switching over from an older Pfizer (PFE) drug was shrinking:
“At roughly 18 months post launch, the switch opportunity is settling into a lower and more normalized steady state.”
Switch patients gave the launch an early boost. From here, more of Attruby’s growth has to come from patients starting treatment fresh.
BridgeBio completed a $1 billion preferred equity financing on July 1 to support its upcoming launches.
Barclays still has the Street’s highest BBIO target
Barclays started covering BridgeBio on Jan. 28 with an Overweight rating. Its target had climbed to $157 before the Oct. 7 trim, and even at $156 it’s still the highest on the Street. Merle expects another quarter of steady strength.
She isn’t the only bull. Canaccord Genuity ($106), Bank of America ($104) and H.C. Wainwright ($120) all reaffirmed Buy ratings on Oct. 6 and 7. That came after the FDA accepted BridgeBio’s application for oral infigratinib with Priority Review and set a Feb. 4, 2027 decision date. In August, BridgeBio had pointed to a mid-2027 U.S. launch.
Notice the gap, though. Those three targets sit between $104 and $120, and Barclays is $36 above the highest of them. That’s a lot of daylight.
Does $156 add up?
The consensus target has climbed even as the stock has fallen. It’s $109 today, up from $66 a year ago, with targets running from $80 to $156.
(Three analysts now rate it a Hold, up from one a year ago.)
Analysts expect revenue to more than double, from $502 million in 2025 to $1.03 billion this year, and to reach $2.59 billion by 2028.
The Oct. 6 infigratinib announcement could support the 2027 revenue outlook if approval allows an earlier launch.
Meanwhile, the stock trades at 9.8x forward sales, a hair above its five-year low of 9.3x. (The 73.2x average dates from years when sales were far smaller, so I wouldn’t lean on it.)
Here’s the math. $65.35 divided by 9.8x means analysts expect about $6.64 of sales per share over the next 12 months. Divide Barclays’ $156 by $6.64 and you get 23.5x, more than double today’s multiple.
Where I land on BridgeBio stock
BridgeBio is still losing money as it gears up for three launches, and the first-line fight won’t get easier. As Outten put it on the call: “the first line remains competitive. And we expect it to stay that way.”
Still, the stock sits near its cheapest multiple in five years while the consensus target keeps rising. That makes $109 look reachable to me. Barclays’ $156 is a more demanding target. Against today’s consensus revenue forecast, it represents about 23.5x forward sales, but revenue growth could reduce the multiple needed to reach that price.
The first real test comes Nov. 27, when the FDA is due to decide on BBP-418. An approval there, plus a clean third-quarter report, would make $156 look a lot less lonely.
So what is BridgeBio Pharma stock actually worth?
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