Key Takeaways for Ares Management Stock as of August 2026
- Sharp Rebound: Ares Management stock closed at $142 on August 12, clawing back from a $109 low in the first quarter, though shares still sit 14% below where they started the year.
- Target Standstill: The Street’s mean price target has held near $145 since March even as the stock swung from $109 to $142, leaving just 3% upside across a 7-buy, 4-outperform, 7-hold split among 18 analysts.
- Model Gap: TIKR’s mid-case model targets $262 by December 2030, implying 84% total return and a 15% annualized rate, a far wider gap than the Street currently prices in.
- Vehicle Cut: Ares cut a €1 billion credit vehicle to €400 million on August 6 amid valuation pushback.
Why Ares Management Stock Is Still Down 14% Even After a Sharp Rebound
Ares Management (ARES) stock has lost 14% since the start of the year, a slide the chart prices at a 23% annualized clip even after a sharp second-half rebound. Shares bottomed at $109.10 on March 31, a nearly 40% retreat from the $173.20 close nine months earlier, before a choppy climb took hold.
The recovery stalled in June. Ares’ nearly $11 billion Ares Strategic Income Fund drew redemption requests worth 14.4% of the vehicle, and the stock closed the second quarter barely above its lows at $111.31. CEO Michael Arougheti addressed the wealth-channel exodus directly on the Q2 earnings call, telling analysts that the redemption queue tied to family offices in Asia had already been cut in half and that “assuming that those 2 trends hold, and I have no reason to believe that they won’t, that would probably mean that you get back to stasis in the next 2 to 3 quarters.” That commentary landed alongside a record $36 billion of second-quarter fundraising and 17% year-over-year growth in assets under management to $671.3 billion.
Six brokerages responded within days. RBC lifted its target to $168, JPMorgan to $153 and Deutsche Bank to $144, and the stock jumped 5.4% on August 3 to its highest level since June. That single week did more to close the year’s drawdown than the previous four months combined. The rebound is real, but it has not yet erased the hole the first quarter dug.
Ares Still Faces Private Credit Valuation Pushback Even as Shares Recover
The same week brokerages raised their targets, Ares hit a reminder of why the market has stayed cautious. The company was forced to shrink a planned €1 billion private credit continuation vehicle to about €400 million after potential backers demanded a steeper discount on the underlying loans than Ares would accept, the Financial Times reported on August 6.
Ares is now pursuing a separate €2.5 billion continuation vehicle for loans from its 2018 European fund. The episode shows that even as fundraising hits records, buyers of Ares’ existing credit book are still negotiating hard on price, and that tension is exactly what keeps the stock’s recovery from outrunning its target.
Ares Management Analysts Hold a $146 Target While the Stock Catches Up
Analysts covering Ares Management stock currently split 7 buys, 4 outperforms and 7 holds, with no sell ratings on the books, among 18 analysts publishing price targets. The mean target sits at $146, just 3% above the $142 close, the tightest gap the stock has carried in over a year.
That gap used to be far wider, and it closed from the price side, not the target side. The mean target ran from $178 in mid-2025 to a peak of $189 that December, then fell to $164 by March and $145 by June as the stock crashed.
It has barely moved since, ticking up only a dollar to $146 through the entire third-quarter rally. Analysts effectively parked their targets near $145 in the spring and let the stock do the work of catching up, which means the 50% implied upside the table showed in March didn’t reflect growing conviction so much as a stock trading well below where the Street already thought it belonged.
TIKR Values Ares Management Stock at $262, Pricing In Long-Term Fundraising Growth
TIKR’s mid-case model values Ares Management stock at $262 by December 2030, implying an 84% total return from the current price of $142, or 15% annualized over 4.4 years.
That pace would need Ares Management stock to outrun the flat-to-negative stretch it has already logged this year, a bar the stock has cleared only in the five weeks since the Q2 earnings call. The case rests on the same institutional fundraising engine that produced July’s record quarter: with $170 billion of dry powder and fee-paying AUM still compounding at 17% a year, Ares has room to grow into a target the Street’s own $146 mean already treats as conservative next to it.
The €1 billion vehicle scale-back is the kind of near-term friction a model built out to 2030 can absorb, even though it is exactly what keeps a twelve-month Street target pinned close to the current price.
Should You Invest in Ares Management Corporation?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
