Key Takeaways
- Archer Aviation shares have fallen 15% in the past month, and rival Joby Aviation fell even further as investors sold speculative tech stocks.
- Most of Archer’s own news was good, from a Barclays upgrade and a partial court win against Joby to new air-taxi plans in Texas and Italy.
- Archer’s purchase of three Boeing businesses, expected to close by the end of 2026, would add Insitu’s more than $200 million a year of revenue.
- Archer’s cash and short-term investments fell $215 million in the second quarter, so the stock suits only investors ready for more dilution, and third-quarter results come after the close on Nov. 9.
Archer Aviation (ACHR) stock is down 15% in the past month, even though most of the company’s news was good.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) fell further, by 19%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 9% as investors sold speculative tech.
A month of good news, and a lower stock
Archer gave investors plenty to like:
- A partial win in court: Archer said on Oct. 2 that a California federal court had dismissed some of Joby’s trade-secret and contract claims against it, along with Archer’s counterclaims.
- An upgrade: Barclays raised the stock to Buy, lifted its target to $8 from $4.50 and picked Archer over Joby.
- Progress in the air: piloted Midnight flights over San Francisco Bay, plans for air-taxi networks in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, and a deal with ITA Airways to build a network in Italy.
The biggest piece is still the Boeing deal. Archer is buying three businesses from Boeing (BA): Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid. The antitrust waiting period ran out on Sept. 18, and Archer expects to close by the end of 2026. Insitu alone brings in more than $200 million a year from drones. Archer itself booked $5 million of revenue in the second quarter.
Analysts expect Archer’s revenue to climb from almost nothing in 2025 to $1.39 billion by 2029:
Even the $138 million estimate for 2027 is less than Insitu brings in each year, so I’d expect those numbers to rise once the deal closes.
TIKR tracks 9 analysts on Archer Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Archer Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Archer Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
Investors sold the whole group
Goldman Sachs kept its Hold rating in mid-October and cut its target to $7 from $8. A Nasdaq selloff on Oct. 22 then hit both air-taxi makers before the open.
Joby lost ground in court and lost Barclays’ vote, yet it fell only a little more than Archer. To me, that says investors sold air taxis as a group, whatever each company announced. Joby reports its own third quarter around the same time as Archer. If its cash burn runs as high, will investors keep selling the two as a pair?
ARK Invest kept buying both. Both stocks jumped on Oct. 27, after ARK disclosed about $7.2 million of new buying across the two.
Watch the cash on Nov. 9
Archer reports third-quarter results after the close on Nov. 9. It has funded itself by selling stock, which took its cash and short-term investments from $465 million at the end of 2023 to $1.97 billion two years later:
By June 30, that was down to $1.56 billion, after a $215 million drop in the second quarter alone. At that pace, the cash lasts a bit under two years. Archer guided for a third-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $170 million to $200 million. Watch where the loss lands, when the Boeing deal closes, and whether management hints at another stock sale.
Wall Street’s targets have been too hopeful
The analysts’ mean target has slipped only from $12.44 to $10.89 over the past year, while the stock lost more than half its value:
That target is 161% above Monday’s close, and even the lowest target, $7, is 68% above it. But analysts have overestimated Archer’s pace for a year now.
I wouldn’t sell here, and I wouldn’t load up either. Archer gave investors more reasons to own it this month, and once the Boeing deal closes it will have real revenue for the first time. But a company burning this much cash is likely to sell more stock. So I’d start with a small position and add only if Nov. 9 shows the cash holding up and the Boeing close on track.
Of course, if the close slips into 2027 or the loss comes in above guidance, I’d expect that stock sale to come sooner.
So what is Archer Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
