Key Takeaways
- Maxim Group kept its Buy rating and $215 target on Strategy on Nov. 3, 59% above the stock, which is down 49% from its high a year ago.
- Strategy’s management gives three ways up, all tied to bitcoin: a higher bitcoin price, a wider premium on its stock, and new sales of its STRC preferred stock.
- Bitcoin per share is down 3.7% in 2026 because Strategy sold stock to build cash and buy back STRC. Its software business earned $4.6 million before tax in 2025.
- Maxim’s target is a bet on bitcoin, and I don’t see $215 within a year until Strategy starts growing bitcoin per share again.
Strategy (MSTR) is down 49% from its high a year ago, and Maxim Group thinks it can climb 59% from here.
Bitcoin broke, then STRC did
Strategy’s stock moves with bitcoin, which fell from its 2025 high of $126,296 to about $58,700 by June 30, 2026.
STRC, the preferred stock Strategy had been selling to buy bitcoin, broke too: it fell below its $100 stated amount in late May. Strategy stopped selling it and has spent $2.04 billion buying it back this year.
In late October, a $6.3 billion hack at Binance knocked bitcoin back to about $78,000, and Strategy said CFO Andrew Kang would step down on Nov. 5.
TIKR tracks 16 analysts on Strategy. How many say “Buy”?
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How Maxim gets to $215
Maxim’s Matthew Galinko kept his Buy rating and $215 target on Nov. 3, after Strategy’s third-quarter report.
On the call, management laid out three ways up:
- A higher bitcoin price: in the third quarter, bitcoin rose 43% and Strategy’s stock 76%.
- A wider premium: CEO Phong Le said the stock trades at 1.15x the value of its bitcoin, against medians of 2.28x to 2.60x in past bull markets.
- STRC sales: STRC sold at $100 buys bitcoin without adding common shares.
Does $215 add up?
Sixteen analysts cover Strategy, and $215 is the median of their 15 targets, below the $234 average. That average has been cut by more than half in a year:
Kang said analysts’ average published bitcoin target is about $111,000, against a bitcoin price of $81,200 on Oct. 23.
Maxim’s target works out to 4.0x the next 12 months’ expected earnings, which says little: Strategy’s $44.75 of third-quarter EPS came almost entirely from a $20.91 billion bitcoin gain. So analysts’ estimates swing between losses and profits from year to year:
The other two levers aren’t working yet. The premium is below the 1.22x Le named in May as the break-even for selling stock to buy bitcoin, and Strategy sold no STRC in the third quarter. Le called “higher digital credit sales, which we think we’ll be able to turn on again soon” a lever.
Software won’t fill the gap: it earned $4.6 million before tax in 2025.
Bitcoin per share has to grow again
I’d treat $215 as a bet on bitcoin with a catch Maxim leaves out. Bitcoin per share is down 3.7% in 2026 because Strategy sold stock to build cash and buy back STRC. Until that turns, I’d expect the stock to lag any bitcoin rally, and I don’t see $215 within a year.
Strategy’s first new STRC sale near $100 would change my mind.
So what is Strategy stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
