Key Takeaways
- CoreWeave rose 5% and Oracle 4% after Oracle priced a $20 billion sale of stock and bonds.
- Oracle’s deal shows lenders still fund AI builders, which matters most to CoreWeave, a far costlier borrower.
- AMD, Super Micro and Cipher Digital rose too.
- CoreWeave reports Nov. 10, with third-quarter interest expense guided well above adjusted operating income.
CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped 5% today, and Oracle (ORCL) rose 4%, after Oracle priced $20 billion of new stock and bonds late Monday.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 4% and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) 4%, and Cipher Digital (CIFR) jumped 16%.
Exactly what Oracle said it would do
Oracle is selling 86.2 million shares at $116 apiece, plus $10 billion of notes with coupons of 7% to 8.65%. That fits the roughly $40 billion it said in June it would raise in fiscal 2027.
Baird analyst Rob Oliver said the sale “seems to be exactly what they previewed.”
CoreWeave pays a lot more for its money
Analysts expect CoreWeave’s revenue to climb from $5.13 billion in 2025 to $26.5 billion in 2027:
Oracle’s raise shouldn’t move those estimates, but CoreWeave must borrow to hit them: consensus sees negative free cash flow every year through 2030.
And it pays more than Oracle does. Its last two unsecured bond deals came at 9.75% in April and 9.625% in June, and its 9.625% notes due 2032 traded at a yield near 15% in mid-October.
The stock trades like investors doubt it will get that money. CoreWeave closed Monday at 1.4x forward sales, its low for the past year and well under its 3.6x average:
The suppliers report tonight
AMD supplies the MI450 chips for Oracle’s planned 50,000-GPU cluster. Super Micro agreed this morning to build SambaNova inference racks, starting with 10,000 chips. Their reports tonight will show whether money like Oracle’s is still turning into orders.
After Cipher’s third-quarter report Monday, JPMorgan cut its target to $18 from $22. Cipher needs tenants to keep signing leases, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods warned that new ones could dry up.
TIKR tracks 42 analysts on CoreWeave. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on CoreWeave, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See CoreWeave’s Analyst Ratings
Nov. 10 is the real test
CoreWeave’s quarterly interest bill has grown more than sixfold in under two years, to $640 million in the quarter to June 30:
For the third quarter, management guided interest expense of $860 million to $940 million, against adjusted operating income of $200 million to $260 million.
Until that interest bill lands at or under the guide, I’d treat today’s bounce as relief.
Of course, a new CoreWeave bond priced near its spring coupons would change that quickly.
So what is CoreWeave stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
