Key Takeaways
- AMD stock is up 131.3% since early January, closing at $516.79 on October 23, yet it trades 20.4% below its October 6 record close of $649.42 after a chip-sector selloff.
- Wall Street sees normalized EPS climbing from $4.17 in 2025 to $7.59 in 2026 and $15.76 in 2027.
- AMD reports third-quarter results on November 3, guiding for $13 billion in revenue.
- The Street expects $22.82 in normalized EPS for 2028, above the $20 threshold in AMD’s long-term non-GAAP earnings target. Lisa Su said in August that AMD now expects to significantly exceed that target.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock is up 131.3% since early January, closing at $516.79 on October 23, after two record data center quarters carried the chipmaker from a February rout to a $1 trillion market value.
The last three weeks took a real bite out of that. AMD stock now sits 20.4% below its October 6 record close of $649.42 (by my math), and the damage came from a sector selloff rather than anything AMD reported. What’s left is a stock priced on a 2027 earnings jump that hasn’t happened yet.
AMD Stock Started 2026 With a 17% Gut Punch
The year opened badly. AMD beat fourth-quarter estimates on February 3, but guided first-quarter revenue to $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, below the record $10.27 billion it had just booked, and said sales of its MI308 chips to China would shrink to around $100 million from roughly $390 million. AMD stock shed 17.3% on February 4. By March 3, it sat 27.76% below its late-2025 peak.
The order that mattered most landed in between. On February 24, AMD and Meta Platforms (META) agreed to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs over several chip generations, with first shipments due in the second half of 2026 and a performance-based warrant giving Meta the right to up to 160 million AMD shares. The climb itself started in April, when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported 41% first-quarter sales growth and AMD shares rose 7.80% that day. By May 5, the stock traded in the mid-$350s.
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Two Beats, Two Very Different Days for AMD Stock
AMD’s May 5 report put first-quarter revenue at $10.25 billion against the $9.89 billion analysts expected, according to Reuters, with data center sales up 57% to a record $5.8 billion. It guided second-quarter revenue to $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million. AMD stock jumped 18.61% the next day and reached the mid-$580s by late June.
The August 4 report beat as well, and the stock went the other way:
- Second-quarter revenue rose 50.1% to $11.54 billion, and AMD guided third-quarter revenue to $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with data center sales up 107% to $6.7 billion.
- On the call, CEO Lisa Su said AMD now expects data center revenue to more than double in 2027 and to beat the $20 annual EPS target set at its 2025 Financial Analyst Day.
The stock had already slid into the low $430s in late July and climbed back above $500 by the August 4 close. It fell again on August 5, then spent most of the next six weeks between the mid-$450s and the low $500s.
How AMD Stock Gave Back 20.4% in Under Three Weeks
The breakout came quickly. AMD jumped 10% on September 21 to top a $1 trillion market value for the first time, capping a five-day run worth about 25%. It set its record close of $649.42 on October 6, the same day Su said AMD would substantially increase supply in 2027 because AI orders keep outrunning capacity.
Then the sector cracked. Reuters reported the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 11.4% in the week to October 16, its steepest weekly drop since March 2025, as a hot inflation reading raised bets on Fed rate hikes and CoreWeave (CRWV)’s $50 billion debt load set off a crisis of confidence across AI stocks.
The second hit came on October 22. AMD stock fell 8.1% to $507.93 in a selloff Reuters tied to fears over the pace of AI spending, with Meta down 7% after signaling it could issue billions of dollars in stock and Lam Research (LRCX) warning that component shortages would limit its growth. Shares recovered 1.7% the next day to $516.79.
The Earnings Curve Under AMD Stock
The Street’s normalized EPS estimates show what the price is paying for. After $4.17 in 2025, analysts expect $7.59 for 2026, $15.76 for 2027 and $22.82 for 2028, so earnings more than double in 2027 alone and reach $22.82 in 2028, 14.1% above the $20 threshold in AMD’s long-term target. At $516.79, AMD stock trades at 68.1 times 2026 estimates but 32.8 times 2027. That second multiple only looks reasonable if the 2027 doubling shows up.
The November 3 Report AMD Holders Should Circle
AMD reports third-quarter results after the close on November 3. The guide calls for $13 billion in revenue, plus or minus $300 million, at a 56% non-GAAP gross margin, and two of AMD’s three reports this year were beats the stock fell on anyway.
What Su says about 2027 matters more than the quarter. A reaffirmed data center doubling backs the $15.76 the Street pencils in, and at 32.8 times that figure, the October pullback leaves AMD stock far less stretched than it was at $649.42. If that outlook softens, the 68.1x multiple on this year’s earnings becomes the one that counts.
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