Key Takeaways
- AMD stock is up 110% in 2026 on surging data center sales, but it’s down 31% from its October closing high.
- Third-quarter Data Center sales rose 97% to $8.5 billion, and AMD guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion, up 66%.
- The sell-off came from outside AMD: Intel’s PC warning, fears that the midterms will slow the AI build-out, rising memory costs, and a reported pause at Micron’s Taiwan plant.
- Earnings are expected to more than double in 2027, and the forward P/E has moved toward its five-year average, so the drop looks like a chance to buy.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock is up 110% in 2026, but it’s still 31% below its Oct. 6 closing high, even after a record third quarter and an 11% bounce on Nov. 6.
AMD’s own news has been great. The selling came from elsewhere. Intel (INTC) warned of a PC slowdown on Oct. 29. Then chip stocks sold off again on Nov. 5 on midterm fears, rising memory costs and a reported pause at Micron’s (MU) $4.5 billion Taiwan plant.
Data center did the heavy lifting
In the second quarter, revenue rose 50% to $11.5 billion, and Data Center sales more than doubled to $6.7 billion. In July, Anthropic agreed to deploy up to 2 gigawatts of AMD’s MI450 GPUs. On Oct. 27, AMD said it would put $1 billion into Meta’s stock offering, with its first Helios racks already installed and in testing at Meta.
The third quarter was even better: revenue rose 45% to a record $13.4 billion, Data Center jumped 97% to $8.5 billion, and non-GAAP EPS climbed 74% to $2.09.
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The sell-off started outside AMD
Intel guided its fourth quarter below expectations after the Oct. 29 close, and AMD fell 11% the next day, since it sells into the same PC market. Intel’s third-quarter client computing revenue fell 5% to $8.1 billion. CFO David Zinsner said he sees “the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year.”
AMD has less riding on PCs. Client was $2.9 billion of its $13.4 billion in third-quarter revenue, and it still grew 7%. And Intel’s servers point the other way. Its data center revenue jumped 78% to $7.3 billion, and its quarterly filing shows server prices up 54%. Intel, up 53% in 2026, can’t make enough Xeon chips, and the buyers it can’t serve are buyers AMD’s Venice chips could win.
Then came Nov. 5, with no AMD news. Investors worried that the Democrats’ midterm sweep will slow the AI data-center build-out. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12%, its worst day since 2020, and AMD fell 17%. Overnight, Qualcomm had warned about rising memory costs, and Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Micron, up 142% in 2026, had paused its Taiwan plant over a labor dispute.
So for AMD, the memory risk is cost, not orders. Its Gaming revenue fell 40% to $773 million in the third quarter on lower semi-custom and graphics sales, and management has warned since May that memory and component costs would weigh on second-half PC and gaming demand.
The fourth quarter is the next test
AMD guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%. That’s up 66%, and above the roughly $16.2 billion analysts expected. CEO Lisa Su said in the release that “we expect growth to accelerate further in the fourth quarter as we scale Helios and ‘Venice’ production.”
Going into the report, analysts already expected normalized EPS to more than double next year:
With a 66% guide and Su now calling for more than 80% revenue growth in 2027, above the roughly 77% analysts had modeled according to LSEG data, those estimates have room to rise.
Back near its usual price
AMD traded at 42x forward earnings at the Nov. 2 close. That’s above its five-year average of 35x and far below June’s 67x peak:
Friday’s $449.04 close is about 4% below the Nov. 2 level, before any post-report estimate increases, so the multiple has moved toward that average. Wall Street’s average target stood at $647 on Nov. 2, before the report, about 44% above Friday’s close.
In late October, the question was whether it was too late to buy AMD. Closer to its usual multiple, with 2027 growth guided above 80%, the case leans toward loading up.
Of course, AMD can only ship Helios as fast as its customers bring new data centers online. Its fourth-quarter report, due early next year, will show the first real Helios volume.
So what is AMD stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
