Key Takeaways
- Riot Platforms is up 30% in the week to Nov. 6 on a 15-year, roughly $28 billion lease of its whole Corsicana campus to Anthropic.
- The lease costs Riot about half a typical build, and management doesn’t expect to sell stock to fund it.
- The lease is a test for Texas peers Cipher Digital and CleanSpark, both downgraded after the governor’s race.
- Riot’s forward sales multiple sits far below June’s peak, and the stock looks cheap if its bridge loan is refinanced without new stock.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up 30% in the week to Nov. 6. On Nov. 4, it announced a 15-year lease of its entire Corsicana, Texas, campus, worth about $28 billion, to a frontier AI lab its quarterly filing names as Anthropic.
The same day, Keefe Bruyette downgraded Cipher Digital (CIFR) and CleanSpark (CLSK) after Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas’s governor race. The group bounced back on Nov. 6: Riot closed up 13.21% and Cipher 17.93% as AI data center stocks rebounded together.
Half the usual build cost
Corsicana will cost Riot about $6 million per IT megawatt, roughly half a typical build. With the lab bringing its own computers and paying nearly all operating costs, Riot expects a roughly 99% NOI margin on about $1.8 billion of average yearly rent, owed on all 910 MW whether the lab uses them or not.
And CEO Jason Les said in the release that “we do not currently anticipate issuing equity to fund our announced projects.”
The 10-Q shows what happens if that plan slips. Riot owes Anthropic up to $4 million per MW for its modules, about $3.6 billion, and if project debt isn’t available on acceptable terms, it repays the tenant through rent credits carrying 12% yearly interest.
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A 15-year bet on Texas power
Cipher has about $9.1 billion of contracted revenue at Barber Lake, but CEO Tyler Page said in its Nov. 2 release that it’s “advancing design work before committing to new leases.” CleanSpark’s tenant at Sandersville, Georgia, took exclusivity over up to 885 MW of its Texas sites in July and still hasn’t signed a lease there. With a frontier lab now committed to Texas for 15 years, will that tenant sign too?
Cheap, if the financing lands
Before the report, analysts expected 2028 revenue of $1.24 billion, almost twice 2025’s:
Riot’s Q3 slides put 2029 revenue from signed leases at $2.3 billion, above analysts’ $1.94 billion, so those estimates could rise.
Yet the stock sat at 6.3x forward sales in early November, near its five-year average of 6.2x:
The 13.21% jump on Nov. 6 lifts it, but nowhere near June’s 16x, set before Corsicana was signed.
The bridge loan comes first
Nearly all of Riot’s roughly $38 billion of contracted revenue now comes from one tenant, Anthropic.
Still, the lease looks as good as it sounds, and with the multiple far below June’s, Riot looks cheap.
Its up-to-$573 million Rockdale bridge loan is due Dec. 31, and Riot says it’s finalizing an investment-grade backstop. A pricier extension, a share sale to repay it, or a turn to the 12% rent credits at Corsicana would undercut that case.
So what is Riot Platforms stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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