Key Takeaways
- ADT shares jumped 34% after Thrive Holdings agreed to buy the company for $10 a share in cash, a $15.3 billion deal including debt.
- With the stock just under $10, the market sees the deal as close to done.
- Thrive is paying about 11x forward earnings, below ADT’s five-year average.
- Apollo Global Management’s funds are providing all of the financing, and the price bears on NRG Energy’s Vivint business.
ADT (ADT) shares jumped 34% today after the company agreed to be bought by Thrive Holdings for $10.00 a share in cash, valuing it at $15.3 billion including debt.
Funds managed by Apollo Global Management (APO) are providing all of the financing. And the price matters for NRG Energy (NRG) too, since it owns smart-home security business Vivint.
A deal the market already believes
The price is a 45.6% premium to ADT’s $6.87 close on Oct. 27, before Octus reported the talks on Wednesday, saying private credit “could set a new record” on the deal. The deal needs stockholder and U.S. antitrust approval, has no financing condition, and should close in the first quarter of 2027. ADT can shop for a better offer until Nov. 28.
Today’s jump leaves the stock just under $10, so the market isn’t betting on a higher offer.
Thrive Holdings, formed by Josh Kushner’s Thrive Capital, will make ADT the foundation of its smart-home security business. Thrive partner Kareem Zaki said it plans to strengthen ADT’s technology and products “with the capital and patience to invest over decades.”
Steady cash carries a lot of debt
About half the $15.3 billion is debt, which a buyer can carry because ADT’s free cash flow climbed from $787 million in 2021 to $1.31 billion in 2025:
And public investors weren’t paying much for that cash. Even after Wednesday’s jump, ADT traded at 7.8x forward earnings, well under its five-year average of 13x:
At $10 a share, Thrive is paying about 11x.
TIKR tracks 6 analysts on ADT. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on ADT, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See ADT’s Analyst Ratings
What it means for Apollo and NRG
For Apollo, up [4%] today, the deal is a showcase for its private-credit business. Apollo reports on Nov. 3, and I’d listen for the size of its ADT commitment.
Vivint’s adjusted EBITDA rose to $301 million in the second quarter of 2026 from $259 million a year before, and it was about a quarter of NRG’s total in the first half. If a buyer will pay a 45.6% premium for ADT’s monitoring cash, is NRG’s stock, down 44% over the past year, giving Vivint enough credit? NRG reports on Nov. 9.
The upside is spoken for
My take: the market has this right. With the financing committed, ADT shareholders already have nearly all of the gain.
Of course, a rival bid before Nov. 28, or trouble with antitrust approval, would change that.
So what is ADT stock actually worth if the deal doesn’t go through?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what ADT could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
