Key Takeaways
- CrowdStrike shares closed at $266, above the $247 average analyst target, after more than tripling from their 52-week low.
- Net new ARR jumped 51% to a record $332.8 million last quarter, and CrowdStrike raised its full-year net new ARR growth outlook to 34%.
- The stock trades at 189.7x forward earnings, while third-quarter guidance implies net new ARR growth slowing to 29% to 31%.
- The December 1 report will show whether AI agent security, including the expanded Nvidia work, adds enough ARR to support the premium.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) has outrun the people paid to value it.
The stock closed Wednesday at $266, down 0.9%, and above the $247 average analyst price target. It has more than tripled from its 52-week low of $86.
The business has earned a lot of that. And the threat backdrop keeps worsening: CrowdStrike says a China-based actor likely used an AI agent to hack South Korean banks.
CEO George Kurtz is selling into the strength, though. He has reported seven share sales since October 7, worth roughly $35 million in total, under pre-arranged plans.
Record ARR meets a record multiple
The second-quarter numbers, reported August 26, built the rally:
- Net new ARR hit a record $332.8 million, up 51%.
- Revenue rose 26% to $1.47 billion, and ending ARR grew 25% to $5.84 billion.
- Free cash flow climbed 33% to $377 million, or 26% of revenue.
Falcon Flex ARR passed $2.29 billion, up 101%. CrowdStrike also lifted its full-year net new ARR growth outlook by 630 basis points, to 34% at the midpoint.
“Q2 was the best quarter in CrowdStrike’s history,” Kurtz said in the release.
The stock has run far ahead of the price targets…
At $266, shares sit only about 7% below the 52-week high of $287, so the market hasn’t cooled much.
AI agents widen the job
Last week, CrowdStrike expanded its Nvidia (NVDA) partnership by integrating Falcon Guardian, its AI detection and response product, with Nvidia’s OpenShell runtime. A planned Sentry integration would enforce policy at the silicon level.
That product line is already moving. AI detection and response ARR nearly tripled from the first quarter, and the threat data keeps supporting the pitch. In CrowdStrike’s latest research, financially motivated hackers drove 82% of legal-sector threat activity.
How much of that reaches revenue?
Analysts expect revenue to compound at 23.8% over the next two years, more than double the 10.6% expected for Salesforce (CRM).
TIKR tracks 54 analysts on CrowdStrike. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on CrowdStrike, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See CrowdStrike’s Analyst Ratings
Paying 190x for durability
That growth comes at a steep price. CrowdStrike trades at 189.7x forward earnings and 40.7x forward revenue, while Salesforce sits at 4.7x forward revenue. Meanwhile, GAAP net income was just $5.3 million last quarter.
The near-term math also gets harder. Third-quarter guidance calls for net new ARR of $343 million to $347 million, up 29% to 31%, a sharp slowdown from 51%.
Next to other security names, the premium stands out:
At 40.7x forward revenue, CrowdStrike needs years of 20%-plus growth just to grow into its multiple.
My take: CrowdStrike is executing as well as any software company I follow, and AI agent security could become a real second engine. But at 190x forward earnings, with the stock above the average target and the CEO selling, the December 1 print needs to clear the net new ARR guide comfortably. I’d wait for a pullback before adding.
CrowdStrike reports third-quarter results on December 1. Watch whether net new ARR tops $347 million and whether AI detection and response ARR keeps compounding.
So what is CrowdStrike stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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