Key Takeaways
- FTAI Aviation shares jumped 14% today after it doubled its buyback to $1.0 billion and launched a $500 million accelerated share repurchase.
- Revenue missed estimates slightly, but adjusted EBITDA beat by about 9%, and FTAI reaffirmed its 2026 and 2027 guidance.
- GE Aerospace and AerCap are cashing in on the same aging CFM56 fleet, and FTAI’s Mod-1 power unit competes for the same demand as GE Vernova’s aeroderivative turbines.
- Analysts expect EBITDA to climb from $1.19 billion in 2025 to $2.22 billion in 2027.
FTAI Aviation (FTAI) shares jumped 14% today after the company doubled its buyback authorization to $1.0 billion and announced a $500 million accelerated share repurchase.
Third-quarter revenue of $977.7 million came in about 2% short of S&P’s consensus, but adjusted EBITDA of $348.3 million beat it by about 9%. FTAI also reaffirmed its 2026 and 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance. CEO Joe Adams said it has “clear visibility into 2027, which is why our Board doubled our share repurchase authorization.”
That visibility rests on two things. One is an aging CFM56 fleet that’s also keeping GE Aerospace (GE) and AerCap (AER) busy. The other is the Mod-1 power unit, with over 100 units under contract, competing for the same demand as GE Vernova (GEV)’s aeroderivative turbines.
A Small Miss, and a Bigger 2027
FTAI’s quarterly revenue roughly doubled in the two years to June:
Third-quarter revenue rose 47% from a year ago, led by a 76% jump in Aerospace Products revenue on 311 CFM56 modules. Not every line grew, though. Aviation Leasing adjusted EBITDA fell to $104.0 million from $134.4 million.
Analysts expect EBITDA to jump to $2.22 billion in 2027:
FTAI’s Buyback Went From Gradual to All at Once
FTAI only set up a $500 million buyback on Sept. 15, and it had used about $80 million of it. Six weeks later, it doubled the authorization and committed half the new total to a single purchase that should finish this quarter. At today’s price, that $500 million retires roughly 2.5% of the company.
The stock traded at 17x forward earnings at Wednesday’s close, below its five-year average of 25x:
Today’s jump takes it to about 20x. The catch: FTAI ended September with $386 million of cash and $3.5 billion of long-term debt, so the repurchase is bigger than its cash pile.
TIKR Tracks 11 Analysts on FTAI Aviation. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on FTAI Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See FTAI Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
Old Engines, New Power
FTAI isn’t eating GE Aerospace’s lunch. GE’s commercial engine services revenue rose 17% last quarter, with spare parts up more than 20%, though GE expects that growth to slow to low double digits in 2027.
AerCap’s maintenance rents and other receipts rose 31% in its third quarter, and it raised its full-year guidance. Lessors and FTAI are selling into the same tight market for older planes.
The Mod-1’s 100-plus units add up to a bit over 2 gigawatts. GE Vernova booked 57 aeroderivative turbine orders last quarter, and its gas backlog and slot reservations reached 122 gigawatts. FTAI has plenty of demand to sell into, and a much larger rival selling the same kind of turbine.
What FTAI Has to Prove in 2027
Guidance that held and a buyback that size say management trusts its 2027 numbers, and at about 20x the stock still sits below its usual multiple. But the leasing decline shows the growth rests on engine parts, and a big share of the 2027 EBITDA jump depends on Mod-1 units that haven’t shipped yet. First deliveries come next year, and until they do, the buyback is a bet on a product with no delivery record.
So What is FTAI Aviation Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
