Key Takeaways
- Foxhaven Asset Management manages $6.5 billion, and its latest 13F shows it opened new positions in NVIDIA, Constellation Energy and VeriSign in the second quarter.
- Since June 30, VeriSign stock is up 24% and Constellation is up 13%, while NVIDIA has fallen 19%.
- Wall Street’s average target is more than 70% above NVIDIA’s price, even after a string of downgrades.
- Of the three, the numbers support NVIDIA best. Its Nov. 17 report is the next test.
Most big funds have to file their third-quarter 13Fs by Nov. 16. Before that wave hits, one fund’s latest filing shows how differently three new bets from the same quarter can turn out.
Foxhaven Asset Management filed its 13F for the quarter ended June 30 on Aug. 14. It shows three new positions: NVIDIA (NVDA), Constellation Energy (CEG) and VeriSign (VRSN). Foxhaven manages $6.5 billion in all, and that 13F, its latest, lists $3.73 billion of US stocks across 16 positions. These were its three biggest new bets of the quarter, and each stock has gone its own way since.
NVIDIA is cheap for a reason, but the discount looks too big
At June 30, Foxhaven held 1.01 million NVIDIA shares worth $202 million. That was 5.4% of its 13F stocks and its eighth-largest position. The stock is down 19% from its quarter-end price and 33% below its 52-week high. HSBC’s Frank Lee downgraded it to Hold and cut his target to $170 from $365. He cited tighter export rules and uncertainty “until a permanent succession plan is laid out and the new CEO is able to demonstrate execution capabilities.”
The Street’s average target has come down from its October peak, but not by much:
The average is now about $280, more than 70% above the stock. Even the lowest target, $170, is above today’s price. At about 13x forward earnings, NVIDIA trades far below its one-year average of 23.5x and its five-year average of 36.2x on TIKR.
TIKR tracks 62 analysts on Nvidia. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nvidia, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nvidia’s Analyst Ratings
Constellation already delivered its beat and raise
At June 30, Foxhaven held 556,719 Constellation shares worth $138 million, 3.7% of its 13F stocks and its 10th-largest position. The stock is up 13% from its quarter-end price. On Nov. 9, its third-quarter report beat consensus with adjusted EPS of $5.06 against $3.89. Management also raised its 2026 guidance to $12.50-$12.80, its second raise this year. CEO Joe Dominguez said Constellation has signed about 8,500 MW of long-term contracts this year. He also said utilities and grid operators made a “massive overestimation” of data center demand.
Analysts have lowered their targets over the year anyway:
The average fell from about $405 a year ago to $338, which is still 21% above the stock. At about 23x forward earnings, Constellation trades a little under its quarter-end average of 24.2x since 2022. That’s a fair price for a business that keeps raising its guidance. The real risk is Texas, home to some of the gas plants it got with Calpine, where an incoming governor wants to halt new data center projects.
VeriSign’s business backs up the run
At June 30, Foxhaven held 373,991 VeriSign shares worth $94 million, 2.5% of its 13F stocks and its 14th-largest position. The stock is up 24% from its quarter-end price and 4% below its 52-week high. The business has kept pace. VeriSign’s third-quarter release on Oct. 22 showed revenue up 5.7% to $443 million. Its .com and .net base reached 182.5 million names, up 6.1% from a year earlier, and it took 13.1 million new registrations in the quarter, against 10.6 million a year before.
Analysts have raised their targets to keep up:
The average climbed from about $296 a year ago to $340, its high for the year. But that’s only 8% above the stock, and the lowest target, $290, is below it. At about 30x forward earnings, VeriSign isn’t cheap, and after its run since June 30, the Street sees little upside left.
The numbers back NVIDIA
The 13F only shows what Foxhaven held on June 30. It doesn’t show what Foxhaven paid or whether it still owns these shares. Its Sept. 30 filing, due by Nov. 16, will show whether it held on through NVIDIA’s slide.
NVIDIA’s risks are real. On top of the succession question and export rules, management expects gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72% in the January 2027 quarter as memory prices climb. That’s down from 75.0% in the July quarter. On the other hand, its interim CEO pushed back on a $250 billion credit backstop for OpenAI, so NVIDIA isn’t signing up for every customer’s risk. And analysts’ fiscal 2028 EPS estimate has barely moved during the selloff.
If I could only follow Foxhaven into one of these today, it’d be NVIDIA. At 13x forward earnings, the market is pricing it as if the AI build-out is about to peak, while the estimates still point higher. Constellation is a reasonable hold, and VeriSign is a good business that’s priced like one.
Of course, we’ll know a lot more after NVIDIA reports on Nov. 17. Watch revenue against management’s $108.0 billion guide, and whether it sticks to its January-quarter margin guide.
So what is NVIDIA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what NVIDIA could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
