Key Takeaways
- A fund with $1.82 billion in US stocks filed its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30 on Nov. 6, and its three biggest new or added positions were all financials: AIG, Carlyle and Citigroup.
- AIG became the fund’s largest US holding after a 50% addition, its Carlyle stake grew 34%, and Citigroup was a new position.
- Wall Street’s average targets sit 7% above today’s price for AIG, 25% for Carlyle and 21% for Citigroup, but Carlyle’s has been cut since February while Citigroup’s has risen over the year.
- Citigroup is the best of the three buys, with its returns climbing and even the lowest analyst target above today’s price.
Algebris (UK)’s three biggest adds of the third quarter all came from one corner of the US market: financials. Its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 6, shows $1.82 billion of US stocks across 72 positions, and the top three new or added stakes were American International Group (AIG), Carlyle (CG) and Citigroup (C).
AIG has already had its run
AIG was the fund’s largest US holding on Sept. 30: 1.85 million shares worth $138 million, 7.6% of its 13F stocks, after a 50% addition in the quarter. The stock is up 11% since the quarter ended. In between, AIG reported third-quarter adjusted after-tax income of $2.06 a diluted share on Nov. 3, with net premiums written up 8% in constant dollars and a core operating return on equity of 11.1%.
Analysts see much less room from here. Their average target of $88.55, from 22 analysts, is 7% above today’s price, and it has barely moved in a year:
AIG trades at about 10x forward earnings. With the Street’s average target stuck near $88 all year, a bigger gain from here needs AIG to grow faster than analysts already expect.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on American International Group. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on American International Group, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See American International Group’s Analyst Ratings
Carlyle’s targets keep falling
Carlyle comes with far more upside on paper. The fund added 34% to its stake, ending September with 2.57 million shares worth $102 million, 5.6% of its 13F stocks and its No. 2 holding. The stock has slipped 0.8% since then and sits 42% below its 52-week high, and analysts’ average target of $49.16, from 20 analysts, is 25% above today’s price.
But analysts have spent most of the year cutting that target:
The average peaked at $70.40 in February and is now at its lowest of the past year, and the lowest single target fell to $40 on Nov. 6. Carlyle trades at about 10x forward earnings, but I’d want to see the cuts stop before calling that a bargain.
Citigroup’s targets keep rising
Citigroup is the only brand-new position of the three: the fund owned 782,190 shares worth $101 million on Sept. 30, 5.6% of its 13F stocks. The stock is down 4% since then and 16% below its 52-week high, even as the business keeps getting better. Citi earned 12.6% on its tangible common equity in the first nine months of 2026, up from 7.7% for all of 2025, and its third-quarter net income jumped 40% to $5.2 billion.
Analysts have raised their targets right along with it:
The average target climbed from $114.10 a year ago to $150.60, 21% above today’s price, from 23 analysts. Even the lowest target, $127, sits above today’s price.
Citi is the one I’d follow
If I could only buy one of the three right now, it’d be Citigroup. Its returns are climbing, analysts keep raising their targets, and the stock has pulled back anyway.
Citi isn’t cheap against its own history, though: its price to tangible book value sits near the top of its range since 2009, where the average is 0.84x. And management expects fourth-quarter revenue in its Markets business to fall about 20% from the third quarter, so the next report could look softer. Carlyle could still prove the bigger winner if its targets stop falling, and AIG’s business is in good shape. Both just need more to go right from today’s prices.
Citi’s fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, due in mid-January, will show whether it can hold the 11% to 13% return on tangible equity it targets for 2027 and 2028. And the fund’s next 13F, due in mid-February, will show whether it kept buying.
So what is AIG stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what AIG could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
