Key Takeaways
- Element Capital, a firm managing $43.43 billion, sold all of its SpaceX (SPCX) and Digital Realty (DLR) shares in the Q3, its latest 13F shows.
- SpaceX stock is down 7% since the quarter ended, while Digital Realty is up 5%.
- Analysts’ average targets sit 83% above SpaceX’s price and 22% above Digital Realty’s, but analysts’ 2027 revenue estimate for SpaceX is well above what its own guidance points to.
- The numbers back the SpaceX exit far more than the Digital Realty one.
A firm that manages $43.43 billion just walked away from two stocks riding the AI data-center buildout. Element Capital Management’s 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 12, shows it held no SpaceX or Digital Realty shares at quarter-end, after owning both on June 30.
Neither was a giant bet. The filing lists $1.69 billion of US stocks in 28 positions, a small slice of what Element manages in all. But the two stocks have gone in very different directions since.
Out of SpaceX before an 18% drop
Element held 506,250 SpaceX shares worth $86 million on June 30, 4.7% of its 13F stocks at the time, and none by Sept. 30. The stock has fallen 18% since the quarter ended. (That’s the share price alone, since a 13F doesn’t show what a fund sold at.) At $139.94, it trades 38% below its 52-week high and just above its $135 IPO price.
The business itself is booming. SpaceX’s Super Intelligence segment, which rents out AI compute, brought in $7.56 billion of third-quarter revenue, up from $2.56 billion in the second quarter. Its backlog reached $63.0 billion at Sept. 30. But the bill is bigger still: capex was $19.6 billion in the quarter, more than its $14.6 billion of total revenue, and management guides fourth-quarter capex to $35 billion to $40 billion.
TIKR tracks 40 analysts on SpaceX. How many say “Buy”?
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Analysts got ahead of SpaceX’s own guidance
Forty analysts cover SpaceX, and their average target of $256 sits 83% above the last close. That average has more than doubled since the stock listed in June:
Over the same stretch, analysts raised their 2027 revenue estimate 146%, to $180.6 billion. SpaceX guides first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, and four quarters at that pace come to $132 billion to $148 billion. So the consensus needs a much steeper climb through 2027 than management has guided to so far. At about 46x forward earnings, the price depends on that climb.
Paying for the buildout is the other problem. Analysts expect negative free cash flow of $57.7 billion this year and $140.7 billion in 2027. SpaceX had $89.9 billion of cash and marketable securities at Sept. 30, so it will likely need new debt or stock to fund the gap. And the compute revenue depends on a few renters: one customer supplied 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, and Anthropic’s contract lets either side walk away on 90 days’ notice. Earlier this month, Anthropic cut its model prices 20% and set its IPO range at a lower valuation than investors had discussed.
Digital Realty is the sale I’d question
Element’s other sale is tied to the same buildout, and Digital Realty has a much steadier quarter to show for it. Element held 230,321 Digital Realty shares worth $41 million on June 30, 2% of its 13F stocks then, and none by Sept. 30. The stock is up 2% since the quarter ended, to $183.47, which is 12% below its 52-week high.
On Oct. 29, Digital Realty reported third-quarter core FFO of $2.10 a share, up 11% from $1.89 a year earlier. It also raised its 2026 core FFO outlook to $8.30 to $8.35 a share, and its CFO put the midpoint at nearly 13% growth over 2025. Management also said it expects to keep growing core FFO per share by double digits into 2027 and beyond.
Thirty-four analysts cover the stock, and their average target has climbed to $224 from $199 a year ago, 22% above the last close:
Even the lowest target, $190, is above where the stock trades now. The risk is the same one SpaceX carries: Digital Realty’s growth depends on AI customers continuing to sign leases.
I’d follow Element out of only one of these
The numbers back the SpaceX exit. Its targets assume a 2027 that SpaceX’s own guidance doesn’t show yet, and the buildout behind that 2027 will take more cash than the company has on hand. The bulls have a real case, since compute revenue tripled in a single quarter. I’d just want to see the ramp before paying for it.
Digital Realty is the opposite case: guidance went up, every analyst’s target is above the price, and the stock has barely moved since the quarter ended. If I had to own one of these two today, it’d be Digital Realty, since its growth is already showing up in its results.
SpaceX’s fourth-quarter report, due early in 2027, will show whether December revenue reached its $100 billion annualized goal and how much cash a $35 billion-plus capex quarter burned. And Element’s next 13F, due in mid-February, will show whether it came back to either stock.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
