Key Takeaways
- Anthropic’s IPO filing shows its SpaceX compute deals reaching about $3.1 billion a month in December, and Jim Cramer warns a failed IPO would hit SpaceX and Nvidia estimates.
- That’s about a fifth of the revenue analysts expect from SpaceX in 2027, so SpaceX has far more riding on the deal than Nvidia.
- Anthropic’s cash covers the commitments due in the 12 months after September, but a 90-day exit clause lets it cut back on SpaceX from 2027.
Anthropic’s IPO filing just showed SpaceX (SPCX) shareholders how much they have riding on someone else’s stock offering.
On Monday’s Mad Money, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Anthropic “will now be paying over $3 billion per month to SpaceX.” Then he tied it to Nvidia (NVDA): “if an Anthropic deal fails, then Anthropic might not have the cash to fulfill all its contracts, and you’d have to take estimates down for both SpaceX and NVIDIA.”
Hours later, Reuters reported that Anthropic had retracted the pricing it sent bankers. The corrected filing landed Tuesday: 825 million shares at $70 to $78.
SpaceX Is Counting on One Customer
Anthropic’s original SpaceX deal, signed in May, was $1.25 billion a month. Its filing puts the expanded deals at up to $120.5 billion, or about $3.1 billion a month once all the capacity arrives in December. SpaceX’s third-quarter 10-Q showed one unnamed customer supplying 34.5% of revenue, and Bloomberg has reported that the customer is Anthropic.
At the full rate, Anthropic pays about $37 billion a year, roughly a fifth of the $181 billion analysts expect SpaceX to book in 2027:
SpaceX Is Spending Ahead of the Checks
Cramer’s point is that contracts like this pay for SpaceX’s giant Nvidia orders:
Management guides fourth-quarter capex to $35 billion to $40 billion, roughly double the third quarter’s $19.6 billion. The AI segment took $40.0 billion of the $48.1 billion SpaceX spent in the first nine months of 2026.
Anthropic Has the Cash for Now
Anthropic held $131.8 billion of cash and short-term investments at Sept. 30. Its filing lists about $901 billion of commitments, but only $70.7 billion falls due in the 12 months after that date. Cash already covers that nearly twice over, before the IPO and a $26 billion private placement add roughly $85 billion at the midpoint.
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Anthropic Can Still Walk
The bigger risk to SpaceX is a clause, not a cash crunch. After non-cancelable periods ending in January and March 2027, either side can exit the SpaceX deals on 90 days’ notice. Chamath Palihapitiya argued SpaceX could use that to double its price, but Elon Musk replied that SpaceX revenue “will drop” if compute gets cheap.
Anthropic is also listing cheaper than once expected. Investors had discussed up to $2 trillion; the filed range implies roughly $1 trillion. That gives it every reason to push suppliers on price, and its big commitments to Google, Amazon and Broadcom give it options.
Nvidia Has More Customers to Lean On
Analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to more than triple from $216 billion in fiscal 2026 (the year ended January 2026) to $692 billion in fiscal 2028:
A slower SpaceX build would trim those numbers, and no filing shows how much of Nvidia’s revenue SpaceX accounts for. But Nvidia’s estimates rest on many buyers; SpaceX’s rest heavily on one. The odder exposure: Nvidia is putting about $10 billion into Anthropic’s private placement, helping fund the very deal Cramer is worried about.
SpaceX Carries the Risk
Cramer’s right that Anthropic’s IPO is an earnings event, but a far bigger one for SpaceX than for Nvidia. If I owned SpaceX, I’d watch where Anthropic prices within its $70 to $78 range as closely as SpaceX’s own numbers. SpaceX’s fourth-quarter report will then show whether December revenue hit $8.3 billion, the monthly pace its $100 billion run-rate goal needs.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
