Key Takeaways
- Fisher Investments’ 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30 shows that it opened a $5.2 billion stake in ExxonMobil and raised its GE Vernova and Cisco stakes by 38% and 22%.
- Since the quarter ended, ExxonMobil is up 4%, GE Vernova is down 14% and Cisco is down 5%.
- GE Vernova and Cisco both trade below their lowest analyst targets. Analysts expect ExxonMobil’s earnings to fall every year through 2029.
- GE Vernova is the move to follow, with 44% upside to its consensus target and a forward P/E well below its own average.
Ken Fisher’s Fisher Investments manages $387 billion. When a firm that size builds a brand-new position worth more than $5 billion, it’s worth a look. Its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 6, shows a new position in ExxonMobil (XOM), along with bigger stakes in GE Vernova (GEV) and Cisco (CSCO).
Only one of the three has gone up since.
ExxonMobil goes straight into the top 20
On Sept. 30, Fisher held 31.93 million ExxonMobil shares worth $5.20 billion, or 1.5% of its 13F stocks. That made the oil giant its 16th-largest holding out of 1,054 in its first quarter on the books. The stock is up 4% since Sept. 30. (That’s only the change in the share price. A 13F doesn’t show when in the quarter Fisher bought, what it paid, or whether it still holds the shares.) ExxonMobil gave shareholders more to like with its third-quarter results on Oct. 30, when it raised its dividend and planned $20 billion of buybacks for 2027.
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Fisher added to GE Vernova, then it got cheaper
Fisher raised its GE Vernova stake 38% in the third quarter. On Sept. 30 it held 4.92 million shares worth $4.68 billion, or 1.3% of its 13F stocks and its 21st-largest holding. The business has kept growing since. On Oct. 28, GE Vernova said its gas equipment under contract had reached 122 GW. That followed 11 GW of new contracts priced more than 20% above its fourth-quarter 2025 orders, and it raised its year-end goal to at least 130 GW. Third-quarter orders rose 96% organically, to $29.3 billion.
Even so, the stock has fallen 14% since Sept. 30 on worries about its data-center customers, which account for about 20% of its contracted gas gigawatts. It dropped 10% on Oct. 22 on fears about AI spending, then slid again after Democrats won Congress on Nov. 3. On Nov. 6, Elon Musk posted that “SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders,” and on Nov. 10 SoftBank booked a $3.7 billion charge on power equipment for its Ohio data-center campus and other US sites. No GE Vernova cancellation has been confirmed, and GE Vernova’s deposits on orders and slot reservations are non-refundable.
Cisco just gave Fisher’s add some support
Fisher raised its Cisco stake 22%. On Sept. 30 it held 40.65 million shares worth $4.37 billion, or 1.3% of its 13F stocks and its 23rd-largest holding. The stock is down 5% since and sits 22% below its 52-week high.
After the market closed on Nov. 12, Cisco reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $18.5 billion, up 24%. It also raised its fiscal 2027 guidance to $74.8 billion to $75.8 billion of revenue and $5.47 to $5.53 of non-GAAP EPS. It now expects $9 billion of AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers this fiscal year, more than double its fiscal 2026 total. CFO Mark Patterson said Cisco is “unlocking significant operating leverage which is enabling us to grow earnings much faster than revenue.” GAAP EPS rose 58% in the quarter.
Does Wall Street agree with Fisher?
On ExxonMobil, analysts have already caught up with the rally. The consensus target has climbed from $129 a year ago to $184, near its high for the year:
That’s just 9% above the last close of $169.78, and the lowest target, $160, is already below the price. ExxonMobil trades at about 12x forward earnings, just under its five-year average of 13x on TIKR. But analysts expect its normalized EPS to fall every year from 2026 through 2029, reaching $10.40 in 2028, compared with $6.99 in 2025. On those 2028 earnings, the stock is pricier than its average. Oil is already sliding, too. After President Trump said the war with Iran could end soon, Brent dipped below $90 this month for the first time since August.
GE Vernova is a different case. Its consensus target has climbed from $679 a year ago to $1,182, a little below its August peak of $1,239:
That’s 44% above the last close of $818.49, and even the lowest target, $940, is above the price. GE Vernova trades at about 35x forward earnings. That’s down from 45x on Sept. 30 and well under its 53x average since mid-2024 on TIKR. Analysts also expect its normalized EPS to more than double, from $15.62 in 2026 to $37.11 in 2028.
Cisco’s consensus target has climbed from $83 a year ago to $136, close to its August high:
That’s 33% above the last close of $102.01, and the lowest target, $110, is above the price as well. Cisco went into a quarter that beat the top of its own guidance trading at about 20x forward earnings. That looks reasonable for a company that expects its hyperscaler AI revenue to more than double this year.
GE Vernova is the move I’d follow
If I could only copy one of Fisher’s three moves right now, it’d be GE Vernova. The stock trades below every analyst’s target and well under its usual multiple, and its gas backlog keeps growing. The risk is the cash. $5.3 billion of its $5.4 billion of third-quarter free cash flow came from working capital, mostly customer down payments, so another big data-center customer pulling back would sting.
After that report, Cisco’s 33% upside is easy for me to believe. ExxonMobil is harder to love at this price, since Wall Street has already priced in most of its good news.
Of course, a 13F is a snapshot, and Fisher may have traded all three since Sept. 30. Its next filing, for the fourth quarter, is due in mid-February. That’s a few weeks after GE Vernova’s fourth-quarter report, which the company usually puts out in late January.
So what is ExxonMobil stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
