Key Takeaways
- B. Riley cut its Rigetti Computing price target to $23 from $25 on Nov. 9 and kept its Buy rating, which still points to 77% upside after a 62% drop over the past year.
- For $23 to work, revenue estimates have to hold as they nearly double from $22.9 million in 2026 to $44.3 million in 2027.
- The target works out to about 269x forward sales, above both the 137x the stock traded at on Nov. 6 and its 3-year average of 225x.
- Estimates are still falling, so the safer move is to wait for Rigetti’s $8.4 million C-DAC system to pass acceptance in the fourth quarter before betting on $23.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has lost 62% over the past year, and on Monday, Nov. 9, B. Riley cut its price target again, to $23 from $25. It kept its Buy rating. The stock still rose 10.5% to $12.98 that day as a broad market rally added to a quantum rally that began when IonQ raised its revenue outlook. At that close, the $23 target still implies 77% upside.
Rigetti fell short of a very high bar
A year ago, investors paid almost anything for quantum computing: Rigetti traded at 1,415x forward sales in mid-October 2025. The business hasn’t caught up with that price. Revenue fell to $7.1 million in 2025 from $10.8 million in 2024. Cepheus-1-108Q, its biggest system, went live in April at 99.1% median two-qubit gate fidelity, and management is aiming for about 99.5% later this year. And analysts cut their 2028 revenue estimate 19% between June 30 and Sept. 30, to $83.4 million from $102.5 million.
B. Riley trimmed again and kept its Buy
Monday’s cut is B. Riley’s second in a week. It came alongside target cuts on 13 semiconductor stocks that the firm tied to the risk of AI data center spending being pushed back, and Rigetti itself hasn’t reported since August. Analyst Craig Ellis had cut to $25 from $35 on Nov. 2, a target that still said the selloff had gone too far. The consensus target has fallen from nearly $40 last December to $27 as of Nov. 4:
Thirteen analysts cover Rigetti, with targets from $17.30 to $40, and B. Riley’s new $23 sits below the $25 median TIKR showed on Nov. 6, before Monday’s cut.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Rigetti Computing. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rigetti Computing, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rigetti Computing’s Analyst Ratings
Does $23 add up?
For $23 to work, Rigetti’s revenue has to climb fast. Analysts expect sales to more than triple to $22.9 million this year, then nearly double to $44.3 million in 2027:
Much of this year’s estimate is one machine. CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen said on the August call that Rigetti still expects to book its $8.4 million system for India’s C-DAC in the fourth quarter, after acceptance testing. That’s most of the roughly $13.4 million Rigetti needs in the second half.
B. Riley’s $23 is about 269x the roughly $0.09 a share of sales analysts expect over the next 12 months, against 137x at the Nov. 6 close and a 3-year average of 225x:
That’s how $23 can work without the 2025 froth: as 2027’s $44.3 million moves into the 12-month window, $23 implies a smaller multiple each quarter. But the estimates have to hold, and analysts already expect the loss per share to widen to $0.21 in 2027 from $0.19 in 2026.
Waiting for the fourth quarter makes more sense
Rigetti has time, with $541.3 million of cash and investments and no debt at June 30. But free cash flow was negative $87.6 million in the 12 months to June, and Rigetti agreed to issue 7,739,938 new shares to the Commerce Department for its $100 million award, at an implied $12.92 each.
Getting to $23 means paying above the stock’s own average multiple for estimates that are still coming down, so C-DAC’s system should pass acceptance before that bet makes sense. The third-quarter report on Tuesday, Nov. 10, after the close, is the next test. Analysts expect $3.68 million of revenue, and a date for C-DAC’s acceptance or a new system order would make $23 easier to believe.
So what is Rigetti Computing stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
