Key Takeaways
- Canaccord Genuity cut its D-Wave Quantum price target to $31 from $35 on Nov. 11 and kept its Buy rating. That’s 191% above the last close.
- Getting to $31 takes a big fourth quarter, revenue growth of 70% to 86% a year through 2028, and a much higher sales multiple.
- The Street’s consensus target has fallen from $38 to $31 since December 2025, and estimates for D-Wave’s losses keep getting deeper.
- $31 looks too optimistic for the next 12 months. The fourth-quarter report is the next test.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is 67% below its December 2025 high, and Canaccord Genuity just trimmed its price target to $31 from $35. The firm kept its Buy rating on Nov. 11, and $31 is 191% above the stock’s last close.
Three Misses, Then a Soft Quarter
D-Wave missed consensus revenue in each of the three quarters from late 2025 through mid-2026, while GAAP operating expenses nearly doubled to $55.0 million in the second quarter, from $28.5 million a year earlier.
In the third quarter, reported Nov. 10, revenue rose 21% to $4.5 million, ahead of the $4.34 million consensus, but bookings fell 19% to $1.9 million and operating expenses climbed 84% to $55.9 million.
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How Canaccord Gets to $31
Canaccord called the quarter solid but halved its fourth-quarter system sales estimate to $20 million from $40 million. Its new target sits right on the Street’s $31 average. Getting there takes three things:
- Florida Atlantic University’s $20 million machine, due in the fourth quarter, with much of it booked as revenue then.
- More system sales: acting CFO Greg Golkov said the pipeline’s dollar value rose more than 75% in the third quarter, “driven by strong interest in system sales.”
Revenue growth of 70% to 86% a year, from $24.6 million in 2025 to the $145 million analysts expect for 2028:
Then the market has to pay up again. Even if 2028 revenue arrives on time, $31 asks investors to pay about 56% more for each dollar of next year’s sales than they pay today.
Does $31 Add Up for D-Wave?
The consensus target has slid from $38 in December 2025, and individual targets now run from $18 to $43:
D-Wave has about $10.4 million of revenue through September, so the $41.9 million consensus for 2026 calls for about $31.5 million in those three months alone. Even with Canaccord’s $20 million of system sales, everything else would have to bring in about $11.5 million, roughly 2.5 times D-Wave’s entire third-quarter revenue.
Loss estimates keep deepening: analysts see a loss of $0.31 a share for 2026 and $0.39 for 2027, from $0.30 and $0.38 three months ago. The multiple has come down hard:
At 48x forward sales, the stock looks cheap against its 153x three-year average. But that average includes a run to 839x in October 2025.
A 2027 Story, at Best
The risk I’d watch is the supply chain. IonQ now owns SkyWater, which makes D-Wave’s chips, and CEO Alan Baratz said D-Wave will keep qualifying other manufacturers.
I think $31 is too optimistic for the next 12 months. D-Wave has the liquidity to keep building, with $503.4 million in cash and marketable securities at September’s end. But $31 needs investors to warm back up to a business with deepening loss estimates and a year riding on one machine. If the fourth-quarter report early next year shows Florida Atlantic’s system delivered, full-year 2026 revenue near $42 million and a second system order in hand, I’d take $31 more seriously.
So What Is D-Wave Quantum Stock Actually Worth?
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