Key Takeaways
- 10x Genomics fell 12% today as Twist Bioscience, PacBio and Absci led genomics tools stocks lower, and no news explains the drop.
- Illumina raised its full-year guidance last week, so weak lab demand looks like an unlikely reason for the selling.
- Analysts expect 10x’s revenue to grow about 10% a year in 2027 and 2028.
- Even after the drop, 10x trades well above its five-year average forward price/sales, so Thursday’s report needs to show its new Atera instrument turning into revenue.
10x Genomics (TXG) sank 12% today, and the rest of the genomics tools group went with it: Twist Bioscience (TWST) fell 15% and Absci (ABSI) 12%.
PacBio (PACB) dropped 10% ahead of its third-quarter report on Wednesday, and even Illumina (ILMN) slipped modestly.
And there wasn’t even a reason beyond general risk-off dynamics! The group just gave back most of last Wednesday’s rebound, when 10x and Twist each jumped 12%. The only company news was good: 10x launched Sentira Single Cell, an AI analysis tool built on Anthropic’s Claude, this morning.
Demand isn’t what cracked
On Oct. 29, Illumina reported third-quarter revenue up 4.2% to $1.13 billion and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $4.64-$4.66 billion. CEO Jacob Thaysen credited “healthy clinical demand and robust NovaSeq X placements.”
It’s hard to read today as a verdict on the group’s business when Twist fell hardest, and its revenue grew 20% in its fiscal 2025.
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10x is priced for its recovery
10x’s revenue was $643 million last year, and the consensus for 2026 is $621 million. That dip comes from last year’s one-time patent settlement revenue rolling off. Leaving that out, 10x guided in August to 2%-5% growth, at $610-$630 million.
The step up comes after that, with the consensus at $683 million in 2027 and $756 million in 2028:
In August, CEO Serge Saxonov pointed to the “very strong early order flow” for Atera, 10x’s new spatial instrument, so those estimates have a product behind them.
The problem is the price. At Friday’s close, 10x traded at 14x forward sales. That’s nearly twice its five-year average of 7.4x, and up from 1.4x in April 2025:
Today’s drop only takes it to about 13x. That’s a lot to pay for about 10% growth two years out.
Thursday is the real test
10x reports its third quarter on Thursday, Nov. 5, with a call at 4:30 p.m. ET, a day after PacBio. Twist follows on Nov. 12.
The way I see it, 10x’s recovery is already in the price, which is why it swings 10% either way on no news. To hold that multiple, Thursday’s report has to show Atera orders turning into revenue and leave 2027’s estimate intact.
Of course, a faster Atera ramp could make 2027’s estimate look low.
So what is 10x Genomics stock actually worth?
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