Lululemon股价在2026年已下跌45%。迈克尔·伯里逢低买入,称其为"无需思考"的决策。

Wiltone Asuncion7 分钟读数
评论者: David Hanson
最后更新 Jul 26, 2026

@pixelshot via Canva, @Aflo Images from アフロ(Aflo)via Canva

Lululemon股票关键数据

  • 当前价格: $114.28
  • 目标价格(中值): ~$141
  • 华尔街目标价: ~$128
  • 潜在总回报率: ~23%
  • 年化内部收益率: ~5% / 年
  • 最大回撤: 51.95% (2026年6月22日)

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发生了什么?

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) 目前仅获得一个"买入"评级。TIKR 7月24日的覆盖表显示,有1个买入、29个持有、1个跑输大盘和3个卖出评级。该股收盘价为$114.28,较52周高点$225.98下跌约49%。

迈克尔·伯里站在了另一边。在7月20日报道的Substack评论中,他称这次抛售是"不假思索"的,并将其视为一个需要耐心的交易,前提是公司十年后仍以可识别的形式存在。

Truist下调至卖出评级,华尔街目标价均值自8月以来已腰斩

Joseph Civello 于7月16日将lululemon评级从持有下调至卖出,目标价从$115下调至$94。他将2026财年每股收益预期从$11.25下调至$10.50,2027财年从$11.75下调至$10.25,并写道,当前面临的不利因素可能比华尔街目前预估的更具结构性。

他并非孤例。摩根士丹利于7月6日恢复覆盖,给予"减持"评级,目标价$93。富国银行的Ike Boruchow于7月21日将其目标价从$110微调至$105,同时将盈利预期下调至低于共识水平。

共识本身也讲述了同样的故事。TIKR的华尔街目标价均值已从2025年8月左右的约$291,降至7月24日的约$128,中值接近$123,低值约$88。去年8月,有14位分析师给予该股买入评级。

他们反应的是6月4日公布的季度业绩。收入增长4%至25亿美元,但毛利率下降410个基点至54.2%,管理层将全年每股收益预期下调至$10.95至$11.15,而去年为$13.26。次日该股收盘下跌8.56%。

临时联席首席执行官兼首席财务官Meghan Frank向分析师提供了关键细节。当被问及客流减少是否偏向于特定客户群体时,她表示公司看到了"广泛的客流减少,这确实涉及所有人口统计数据。"局限于某一群体或某一价格层级的问题可以通过商品调整来解决。

Lululemon华尔街目标价 (TIKR)

查看Lululemon股票的历史及前瞻性预测(免费!) >>>

估值倍数之所以便宜,是因为盈利预期持续下调

Lululemon的NTM市盈率为10.33倍,NTM企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润为5.93倍。在TIKR竞争对手表的第一页,所有拥有前瞻市盈率的同行估值都高于它:Deckers为12.59倍,安踏体育为13.04倍,阿迪达斯为17.18倍,拉夫劳伦为20.24倍,耐克为24.25倍。在企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润方面,最接近的同行是安踏体育,为7.15倍。

这种折价并非没有原因。TIKR的两年期前瞻性预测显示,收入每年增长1.1%,而息税折旧摊销前利润收缩6.3%,每股收益收缩7.8%。对于盈利萎缩的公司来说,个位数的估值倍数是移动的目标,这大致是Civello提出的观点。

Lululemon NTM价格/标准化盈利(市盈率) (TIKR)

在TIKR中查看Lululemon相对于同行的表现(免费!) >>>

伯里在110美元出头的低位买入,该股目前仍处该价位

伯里在6月初于其Substack上披露,在股价跌至110美元中低区间后,他大幅增持了头寸。该股在7月24日收盘价为$114.28,因此他所描述的入场价位仍然有效。

他的论点基于资产负债表和运营计划。每股有形账面价值已从去年8月的$34.26上升至$40.52。中国大陆收入本季度增长30%,但管理层指出,农历新年时间变化为该数字贡献了8个百分点,Frank表示潜在趋势与全年约20%的指引基本一致。

Frank表示,第一季度全球全价销售以高个位数增长。美国市场仍略有负增长,但较第四季度有显著改善,此前公司从北美门店撤下了15%的库存单位并减少了降价促销。Lululemon今年还计划增加20%的销量,库存单位数下降约4%。

这些均未体现在业绩指引中。在讨论这些产品和营销计划时,Frank告诉分析师,公司"目前没有假设这些举措会产生任何重大影响",这为如果它们成功实施,业绩超出指引区间留下了空间。

两点提醒。伯里7月的评论是通过其Substack而非监管文件发布的,因此当前持股规模未经确认。此外,4月季度回购的220万股股票的平均价格为$165,比该股当前交易价格高出约44%。

TIKR高级模型分析

  • 当前价格: $114.28
  • 目标价格(中值): ~$141
  • 潜在总回报率: ~23%
  • 年化内部收益率: ~5% / 年
Lululemon高级估值模型 (TIKR)

查看分析师对Lululemon股票的增长率预测及目标价(免费!) >>>

使用中值情景,该模型预计到2031年1月股价将达到约$141,总回报率约23%,四年半内年化回报率接近5%。在TIKR整个2026年至2036年的预测窗口内,该情景基于3%的收入复合年增长率和11.4%的净利润率,并假设估值倍数继续以每年约4%的速度收缩,而非重新评级。

两个增长驱动力是:中国大陆市场(全年指引约20%增长)和营业面积扩张(低双位数增长),今年新开的25至30家门店大部分位于国际市场。利润率驱动力是关税减免,因为全年关税总影响指引约为30个基点,且几乎全部被抵消,而第一季度单季的总影响就高达280个基点。

主要风险在北美市场,该地区所有人口统计群体的客流均出现下降,且业绩指引预计第二季度将出现低双位数下滑。上行空间在于,如果其追赶策略以及营销支出占销售额比例提升至6%至6.5%的措施奏效,因为该指引区间未包含任何这些举措的益处。下行风险在于,如果同店销售额持续下滑且清仓促销持续到第二季度之后,那么11.4%的利润率假设就过于乐观了。

结论

伯里和Civello各自说对了一部分。该股基于当前数据确实便宜,而这些数据仍在被下调。根据模型的假设,这最终转化为约5%的年化回报率,这是一个正的实际回报,但速度缓慢。

第二季度业绩将决定一切。Lululemon尚未确认发布日期,日历指向8月下旬或9月初。管理层指引全价销售下降中个位数,降价促销增加约50个基点,Frank称第二季度是降价促销的高峰期。如果情况并非如此,那么Heidi O'Neill在9月接手时将面临比她同意接手时更棘手的问题。

查看亿万富翁投资者正在买入哪些股票,以便您能通过TIKR跟随聪明资金。

您应该投资Lululemon吗?

唯一真正了解的方法是亲自查看数据。TIKR为您免费提供专业分析师用来回答该问题的机构级财务数据。

调出Lululemon,您将看到多年的历史财务数据、华尔街分析师对未来几个季度收入和盈利的预期、估值倍数随时间的变化,以及目标价是呈上升还是下降趋势。

您可以建立一个免费的观察列表,以跟踪Lululemon以及您关注的所有其他股票。无需信用卡。只需您做决策所需的数据。

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免责声明:

请注意,TIKR上的文章并非旨在提供来自TIKR或我们内容团队的投资或财务建议,也不是买卖任何股票的建议。我们根据TIKR Terminal的投资数据和分析师预测来创建内容。我们的分析可能未包含最新的公司新闻或重要更新。TIKR对提及的任何股票均无持仓。感谢阅读,祝您投资愉快!

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8 分钟读数

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从6月30日到7月24日,市场对达美航空未来十二个月盈利的共识预期大幅上调了约44%,这使其远期市盈率从约16倍降至约10倍。
Wiltone AsuncionJul 26, 2026

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