Key Takeaways
- Vistra (VST) shares have lost 32% over the past year, and BMO Capital cut its price target to $188 from $210 on Nov. 5 while keeping its Outperform rating.
- BMO’s target is 66% above the current price, and the analysts’ $204 consensus target is higher still.
- Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimates about 6% in three months, and Texas’s governor-elect campaigned on a moratorium on new data centers.
- BMO’s $188 asks for about 19x forward earnings, well above Vistra’s five-year average of 15x. With estimates still falling, I’d expect the stock to fall short of that target within a year.
Vistra shares have lost 32% over the past year, and they took another leg down after Tuesday’s election.
BMO Capital still sees a big rebound. On Nov. 5, it cut its price target to $188 from $210, still 66% above the current price, and kept its Outperform rating.
Texas did most of the damage
The trouble started with Texas power prices.
On Vistra’s Q2 call on Aug. 7, CEO Jim Burke said ERCOT wholesale prices had averaged $30 a megawatt-hour so far in 2026, flat with 2025, and added: “$30 is not going to get new stuff built.”
CFO Kris Moldovan said Texas forward prices for 2027 had fallen well below the curves behind that year’s outlook.
Then came the Nov. 3 election. Democrats won both houses of Congress, and Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race after campaigning on a moratorium on new data centers.
KeyBanc downgraded Vistra to Sector Weight the next morning, and the stock sank to a new 52-week low.
BMO still sees $188
It’s BMO’s second cut in a month: it lowered its target to $210 from $231 on Oct. 5.
Bulls can point to what’s already locked in. As of Aug. 3, Vistra had hedged about 100% of its expected 2026 generation and about 98% of 2027’s.
And its East segment earned $1.443 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2026, against $897 million for Texas.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Vistra. How many say “Buy”?
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Does $188 add up?
The consensus target has slipped to $205 from $225 a year ago:
Analysts still expect normalized EPS to nearly double from $4.76 in 2025 to $8.72 this year, and to reach $10.44 by 2028:
But they’ve cut their 2027 estimates about 6% over the past three months.
With next year nearly all hedged, the election shouldn’t change 2027’s earnings much. 2028, only about 78% hedged, is the year at risk.
Vistra traded at 13x forward earnings at the Nov. 2 close, below its five-year average of 15x, and it’s lower still after this week’s drop:
BMO’s $188 works out to about 19.7x the earnings analysts expect over the next twelve months. That’s well above its five-year average, though close to its 18x average over three years.
Friday’s report has a lot of work to do
The biggest risk is Texas politics. Comanche Peak, Vistra’s Texas nuclear plant, still has 1,200 MW that isn’t under contract, and the governor-elect wants to pause new data centers.
A bounce from here wouldn’t surprise me. But $188 within a year asks investors to pay 19x for earnings analysts are still cutting, and I don’t see that happening while Texas’s data center rules are up in the air.
Vistra reports Q3 results on Friday, Nov. 6, and plans to update its 2027 outlook. Suppose it guides to about $8.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA or more.
That’s the low end of its range plus what its Cogentrix purchase and nuclear contracts add. I’d take that as a sign Texas’s weak prices are already in the estimates.
So what is Vistra stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
