Key Takeaways
- UPS yields 6% and Comcast 5%, and each held its quarterly dividend flat in its latest declaration.
- UPS’s dividend took 85% of its free cash flow over the twelve months to Sept. 30, 2026, against 24% for Comcast.
- At their 5-year growth rates UPS pays more over the next 10 years, but at the pace each dividend grew in fiscal 2025, Comcast pays more.
- Comcast’s planned spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky, due by the middle of 2027, is the biggest open question for its dividend.
United Parcel Service (UPS) declared its regular quarterly dividend of $1.64 a share on Nov. 4 and held it flat. Two weeks earlier, on Oct. 22, Comcast (CMCSA) kept its own quarterly payout at $0.33 as it gets ready to split in two.
Both yield over 5%, which makes either one tempting for income. But if I could hold only one of them for the next 10 years, which would it be?
| Metric | UPS | Comcast |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend yield | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Dividend growth, fiscal 2020-2025 | 10.2% a year | 7.5% a year |
| Cash dividend payout ratio, TTM to Sept. 30, 2026 | 85% | 24% |
| Cash dividend payout ratio, forward (fiscal 2026 consensus) | 88% | 36% |
| Net debt/EBITDA (LTM) | 1.6x | 2.3x |
| Interest coverage (LTM) | 6.7x | 4.3x |
Source: TIKR and StockAnalysis, Nov. 9, 2026.
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UPS pays the bigger check, with little to spare
Over the twelve months to Sept. 30, 2026, UPS paid $5.42 billion in dividends out of $6.35 billion of free cash flow, a tight 85% cash dividend payout ratio. Analysts’ fiscal 2026 consensus puts it at 88%. Free cash flow fell short of dividends paid in fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2025:
Dividends paid jumped from $3.44 billion in fiscal 2021 to $5.11 billion in fiscal 2022. CEO Carol Tomé said on the third-quarter call, “So clearly, our dividend is safe and secure.”
That’s a bold line after dividends took 113% of free cash flow in fiscal 2025. Still, UPS guides to about $6.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow this year against around $5.4 billion of dividends.
UPS also had a good third quarter. Revenue of $22.9 billion was 6.7% above the third quarter of 2025’s, and UPS raised its full-year outlook on Oct. 27.
Comcast’s dividend has plenty of cushion
Comcast pays a smaller check, and covers it far more comfortably. Over the twelve months to Sept. 30, 2026, Comcast paid $4.82 billion in dividends out of $19.66 billion of free cash flow, a well-covered 24% cash dividend payout ratio. On the fiscal 2026 consensus, that ratio is 36%. Dividends took between 22% and 31% of free cash flow in each fiscal year from 2021 to 2025:
The business underneath is under more strain. Third-quarter free cash flow of $4.21 billion was 14.8% below the third quarter of 2025’s. Comcast also lost 144,000 domestic broadband customers in the quarter amid pricing pressure from fiber and fixed wireless. Co-CEO Michael Cavanagh said its investments “are creating near-term financial pressure, but we believe they’re necessary to strengthen customer relationships and position the business for a return to growth over the long term.”
There’s growth elsewhere. Wireless lines reached 10.6 million, 18% more than a year earlier, and Peacock posted $261 million of adjusted EBITDA.
So which dividend wins?
If I can only pick one dividend stock to hold for the next 10 years, it’s Comcast. At UPS’s 10.2% a year from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, $10,000 in UPS would pay about $9,806 over the decade, against about $7,677 in Comcast at its 7.5%.
But UPS can’t keep raising at that pace with 85% of its free cash flow already going out the door. At the pace each dividend grew in fiscal 2025 (0.6% for UPS and 6.5% for Comcast), Comcast’s income passes UPS’s around 2029. Over the 10 years, Comcast pays about $7,311 to UPS’s $6,271.
Analysts expect Comcast’s free cash flow to come down from fiscal 2025’s level, and the dividend is still well covered:
The consensus has free cash flow at $13.6 billion in fiscal 2026, $13.0 billion in fiscal 2027 and $13.4 billion in fiscal 2028, after $19.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Sixteen analysts make the fiscal 2026 estimate, and last year’s final consensus came within 12% of the actual.
This isn’t to say UPS’s dividend is in trouble. It pays the bigger check today, $610 a year on $10,000 against $543. It’s just that, over a decade, I’d rather own the dividend with room to keep growing.
Of course, Comcast’s dividend will look different once it spins off NBCUniversal and Sky, which it expects to do by the middle of next year. In July, Comcast’s CEO said the company would “take the coming months, obviously, to work through capital allocation, capital structure policies.”
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
