Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly broke ground on Nov. 12 on a $3.5 billion plant for injectable obesity drugs, and President Trump shared the news.
- The plant won’t run until 2031, so Lilly is paying now for sales years away.
- Capex rose from $1.31 billion in 2021 to $7.84 billion in 2025, yet free cash flow hit $8.97 billion last year.
- With China approving Lilly’s pill the same day, running short of supply is the bigger risk.
Eli Lilly (LLY) is building factories for patients it doesn’t have yet, and President Trump just plugged one.
Lilly broke ground on its Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, plant on Nov. 12. That evening, Trump shared the news on Truth Social: “Lilly breaks ground in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley on a $3.5 billion site to make next-generation obesity medicines, the latest of 10 new U.S. sites since 2020.”
That’s Lilly’s own release headline, word for word, and the plant was announced in January. What’s new is that construction has started. The same day, Reuters reported that China’s medicines regulator had approved orforglipron, Lilly’s daily weight-loss pill.
A Plant for a Drug That Isn’t Approved Yet
The site will make injectable medicines and devices, including retatrutide, with 850 permanent jobs, and Lilly expects it running by 2031. Lilly plans to file retatrutide for U.S. approval in the first quarter of 2027, so it’s committing to this plant before the drug is even approved.
China adds demand. Orforglipron, sold in the U.S. as Foundayo since April, now enters a market where the National Health Commission says more than 65% of the population could be overweight or obese by 2030.
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Lilly Sells More by Charging Less
Lilly keeps building because lower prices keep bringing in patients. In the third quarter, worldwide prices fell 15% and volume rose 53%, and its non-GAAP gross margin still widened to 84.4%.
Ro co-founder and CEO Zach Reitano put it simply on Invest Like the Best on Nov. 11: “If you look at Lilly’s earnings, prices come down, volume far outstrips it.”
On Nov. 6, Lilly added Hims & Hers to sell Zepbound and Foundayo at Lilly’s self-pay prices, from $149 a month.
Revenue nearly doubled to $65.2 billion from 2023 to 2025, and analysts expect more:
This year’s $91.7 billion consensus sits inside Lilly’s raised guidance of $91 billion to $92 billion. A plant opening in 2031 is for the years after the $119 billion analysts expect in 2028.
The Bill Comes First
Lilly’s capital spending has risen every year since 2021:
It reached $9.9 billion over the 12 months to June 2026. Analysts expect it to ease to $6.3 billion by 2030, even as Lilly keeps starting plants, including a multiyear, $5 billion Virginia project it broke ground on Oct. 22.
Free cash flow fell to $790 million in 2023, then rose to $8.97 billion in 2025:
The first half of 2026 alone brought $10.8 billion.
Price is the risk. Generic drugmakers filed in July to sell copies of Mounjaro and Zepbound. If price cuts outrun volume, Lilly is left with plants it doesn’t fully need.
Why Lilly’s Build-Out Is the Right Bet
I’d take that risk. A business that cuts prices 15% and sells 53% more isn’t short of patients, and with China open to the pill and retatrutide coming, running short of supply is the bigger danger. Lilly’s 2027 guidance, due with fourth-quarter results in January, will show whether capex keeps climbing.
So What Is Eli Lilly Stock Actually Worth?
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