Key Takeaways
- Former Tesla president Jon McNeill says Tesla was built with “almost no marketing budget,” even as Elon Musk asked him to double the company every six to eight months.
- Gary Black says that lack of marketing keeps costing Tesla share, and will cost it in robotaxis and Optimus too.
- Tesla sold 8,817 cars in China in October, down 66%, and its operating margin fell from 16.8% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2025.
- Headlines still sell the Model Y. Winning robotaxi riders from rivals that got there first will take more.
When Jon McNeill became president of Tesla (TSLA), Elon Musk warned him that “the marketing budget here is precisely zero.” “And you need to double the company every six to eight months with no marketing budget,” McNeill recalled on this week’s episode of The Knowledge Project.
Musk’s answer was headlines, and McNeill says that’s still Tesla’s marketing model. His takeaway: “I’m very suspect of large marketing budgets now because I’ve seen one of the world’s largest companies get built with almost no marketing budget.”
Gary Black of The Future Fund draws the opposite lesson. “The lack of strategic marketing skills is killing TSLA over and over,” he posted on X on Nov. 6.
China gives him fresh evidence. Tesla sold just 8,817 cars there in October, according to the China Passenger Car Association, down 66% from a year earlier and its weakest month since July 2022. China’s electric and plug-in hybrid sales fell only 13.7%.
Tesla Grew on Headlines, Then Stalled
McNeill’s model worked for years. Revenue grew more than elevenfold, from $7.0 billion in 2016 to $81.5 billion in 2022:
Then it stalled between $94.8 billion and $97.7 billion a year from 2023 to 2025, while operating margin fell from 16.8% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2025:
Part of that is spending on robotaxis and Optimus, with R&D up 41% in 2025. But automotive sales revenue also fell 9%, on about 8% fewer cash deliveries and a lower average selling price. The business paying for the spending shrank.
TIKR Tracks 44 Analysts on Tesla. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Tesla, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Tesla’s Analyst Ratings
Wall Street Is Counting on Tesla’s Second Act
Musk posted in October that “Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.” Analysts expect growth to return, with revenue rising from $94.8 billion in 2025 to $146 billion in 2028:
One weak October shouldn’t move that much, since the first month of a quarter is usually Tesla’s slowest in China. But China sales are down 15% this year through October, and China made up 22.1% of 2025 revenue. If that slide runs into 2027, the later estimates look too high.
Where the product is right, headlines still work. McNeill calls the Model Y “the number one selling car in the world,” adding that “you don’t need a sales force, it sells itself.” The Cybertruck never passed that test: US sales fell 48% to 20,237 in 2025, and Tesla will wind it down at Giga Texas around mid-2027 to build Cybercabs.
Robotaxis Are a Sales Job for Tesla
Tesla expanded its robotaxi service to San Antonio on Nov. 9. Uber, which handled 4.1 billion rides and deliveries last quarter, expects about 700 fully driverless partner vehicles on its app by year-end. A rider takes whatever car shows up in the app already on their phone. Musk can make a robotaxi famous with one post, but getting riders to switch apps takes selling Tesla has never had to do.
Gary Black Has the Better of the Tesla Argument
McNeill’s lesson holds for a car as good as the Model Y. Tesla’s next leg depends on robotaxis and Optimus, where it has no head start, and after three flat years and a thinner margin, I don’t think headlines alone get it there. The check comes soon: Tesla sold 73,145 cars in China in November 2025 and 93,843 in December. Matching that would make October look like a blip.
So what is Tesla stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Tesla could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
