Key Stats for $SMCI Stock
- Price Change for $SMCI stock: -9%
- Current Share Price: $48
- 52-Week High: $66
- $SMCI Stock Price Target: $51
What Happened?
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock dropped almost 9% on Thursday after the server maker released weak preliminary results for its fiscal first quarter of 2026, with revenue coming in well below the company’s own guidance.
SMCI expects to report $5 billion in revenue for the quarter, down from the $6 billion to $7 billion range it had previously issued.
Super Micro blamed “design win upgrades” for pushing some expected first-quarter revenue into the second quarter.
CEO Charles Liang tried to put a positive spin on things, saying “we see customer demand accelerating, and we are gaining AI share, reiterating revenue of at least $33B for FY 2026 with the expectation of delivering more.”
SMCI said it has secured “recent design wins” worth more than $12 billion, with delivery requested during its fiscal second quarter.
Super Micro will provide further updates on expected second-quarter deliveries and revenues during its earnings call on November 4th, when it officially reports first-quarter results.
Liang emphasized the strength of customer engagement, saying “Supermicro is seeing outstanding levels of customer engagements for newly released AI liquid cooled solutions along with numerous key customers ramping large, multi-quarter, volume deployments.”
He also highlighted robust demand for Supermicro’s Nvidia GB300, B300, RTX Pro, and AMD 355X LC products, which are now starting to ship.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for SMCI stock (It’s free!) >>>
What the Market Is Telling Us About SMCI Stock
The market’s negative reaction to SMCI stock shows investors are tired of revenue timing issues and want to see the company actually deliver on its projections.
Missing your own guidance by 17% to 29% is a huge whiff. Even if the revenue is just pushed to the next quarter, that kind of miss raises questions about SMCI’s visibility into its business and its ability to forecast accurately.
When a company tells investors to expect $6 billion to $7 billion and then delivers $5 billion, credibility takes a hit.
SMCI stock is trading 60% below its all-time high in October 2025, reflecting the significant loss of investor confidence.
The company went from being a high-flying AI infrastructure play to a show-me story where management needs to prove it can execute.
The explanation that “design win upgrades” pushed revenue to the second quarter sounds reasonable on the surface.
In the server business, customers often request upgrades to more advanced configurations before delivery, which can delay shipments.
But investors have heard variations of this story before from other tech companies, and it doesn’t inspire confidence.
The $12 billion in recent design wins is impressive, but only if those orders convert into actual revenue.
That would represent more than double the expected first-quarter revenue and suggests the pipeline is strong.
Super Micro is trying to position itself as a key beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom, particularly through liquid-cooling solutions that are becoming critical for high-performance AI systems.
The company highlighted strong demand for Nvidia GB300, B300, RTX Pro, and AMD 355X LC products, which shows it’s winning business with cutting-edge technology.
The fact that “numerous key customers” are ramping large, multi-quarter volume deployments is a positive signal for SMCI stock over the medium term.
These types of deployments take time to ramp, but can provide sustained revenue once they scale. The question is whether Super Micro can execute on these opportunities without further delays.
Management’s reiteration of full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of “at least $33 billion” is meant to reassure investors that the business remains on track despite the first-quarter miss.
That would represent massive growth from fiscal 2025 levels and would require the company to deliver roughly $7 billion per quarter for the rest of the year.
The AI infrastructure story remains compelling, and Super Micro is well-positioned with liquid-cooling technology that’s becoming essential for next-generation data centers.
But execution matters, and SMCI stock has been punished because investors need to see consistent delivery before they’ll reward the company with a higher valuation again.
Wall Street Analysts Are Bullish on These 5 Undervalued Compounders With Market-Beating Potential
TIKR just released a new free report on 5 compounders that appear undervalued, have beaten the market in the past, and could continue to outperform on a 1-5 year timeline based on analysts’ estimates.
Inside, you’ll get a breakdown of 5 high-quality businesses with:
- Strong revenue growth and durable competitive advantages
- Attractive valuations based on forward earnings and expected earnings growth
- Long-term upside potential backed by analyst forecasts and TIKR’s valuation models
These are the kinds of stocks that can deliver massive long-term returns, especially if you catch them while they’re still trading at a discount.
Whether you’re a long-term investor or just looking for great businesses trading below fair value, this report will help you zero in on high-upside opportunities.
Click here to sign up for TIKR and get our full report on 5 undervalued compounders completely free.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
