Key Takeaways
- Strategy fell 9% today as bitcoin dropped 5% to below $76,000 in a broad tech sell-off.
- The stock fell about twice as far as bitcoin because its bitcoin was worth 1.6x its common book value at June 30.
- Bitcoin miners fell harder, CleanSpark among them.
- Strategy had $5.91 billion of cash at Sept. 30, enough to keep paying its preferred dividends without selling bitcoin.
Strategy (MSTR) fell 9% today as bitcoin slid below $76,000.
The bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) fell too.
Twice bitcoin’s drop
Bitcoin fell 5% today as investors dumped riskier assets: the Nasdaq-100 fell 6% and the S&P 500 4%.
Strategy fell further because it paid for much of its bitcoin with convertible notes and preferred stock. At June 30, its bitcoin was worth $49.67 billion against $30.89 billion of common book value, or 1.6x. So a 5% drop in bitcoin takes about 8% off book value. The market did the rest.
Strategy books the change in bitcoin’s price as a gain or loss every quarter. That’s why analysts’ normalized EPS estimates swing from a loss of $17.44 a share in 2026 to a profit of $23.67 in 2027.
Those estimates come from one or two analysts guessing where bitcoin ends each year. Today’s slide will move them far more than anything in the software business.
Robinhood and the miners fell further
Robinhood (HOOD) fell 10%, though crypto is a small part of its business. Crypto brought in $120 million of its $1.42 billion in third-quarter revenue, down 55% from a year earlier, while options brought in $399 million. I’d put the drop down to the tech sell-off hitting a stock whose customers trade more when markets run hot.
MARA Holdings (MARA) fell 12% and CleanSpark fell 14%. The miners have their own kind of leverage: bitcoin’s price sets what each coin they mine is worth, but their power bills don’t drop with it.
TIKR tracks 16 analysts on Strategy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Strategy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Strategy’s Analyst Ratings
Strategy has the cash to wait
Strategy ended September with $5.91 billion of cash and short-term investments.
That’s more than three years of the $1.76 billion a year in preferred dividends and interest that management gave in July.
This is the trade Strategy shareholders signed up for. The leverage that doubled bitcoin’s drop would boost a rebound the same way, and the cash means Strategy can wait for one without selling coins.
The next test comes on Nov. 11, when MSCI names the companies its new index rule removes.
So what is Strategy stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
