Key Takeaways
- ASML shares fell 8% today in a post-election chip sell-off, and Everpure fell even harder.
- ASML had no news, and its customers’ down payments show demand for its machines still outruns supply.
- Analysts expect ASML’s normalized EPS to roughly triple from 2025 to 2028, yet its forward P/E sits well below its five-year average.
- ASML gives its first 2027 outlook with fourth-quarter results on Jan. 27.
ASML Holding (ASML) fell 8% today as the post-election chip sell-off ran into a second day. Storage maker Everpure (P) slid 16%.
A second scare in a week
Chip stocks fell on fears that Democrats’ larger-than-expected midterm wins will slow data-center spending. Qualcomm’s light guidance after Wednesday’s close made it worse. For ASML, it’s the second drop in a week, after it fell 6% in Intel’s chip rout.
Stocks closer to the data centers fell harder. Applied Digital (APLD), which builds them, fell 16% after election results in Texas raised worries about data-center permits. Ciena (CIEN), whose optical gear links them, lost 15% as optics peer Coherent slid after its own report.
ASML sits two steps further back than Applied Digital and Ciena: it sells machines to the chipmakers that supply data centers.
Demand still outruns supply
Nobody else sells EUV machines, and ASML can’t build them fast enough. Management says its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 won’t fully meet demand, and customers want to order for 2029 and 2030.
They’re paying ahead, too: noncurrent contract liabilities, which hold customers’ down payments, jumped from €3.6 billion to €9.3 billion in the third quarter of 2026.
Analysts see ASML’s normalized EPS roughly tripling, from €24.7 in 2025 to €76.2 in 2028:
Nothing in today’s sell-off came from ASML, so I don’t see a reason for analysts to cut those numbers.
TIKR tracks 41 analysts on ASML Holding. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on ASML Holding, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See ASML Holding’s Analyst Ratings
A much cheaper stock
The stock is another matter. It traded at 47x forward earnings at the end of June, and 25x before today’s drop, well below its five-year average of 34x:
Today’s drop takes it to about 23x.
The way I see it, the market just marked down a business whose customers are lining up to pay in advance, and that looks like an opportunity.
The market’s fear is real enough: ASML’s plans assume chipmakers keep spending through at least 2028, and if data-center building slows, their orders would too. Plus, ASML’s CFO has said the MATCH Act, a proposed US ban on DUV immersion sales to China, could come up after the midterms. China is about 20% of ASML’s expected 2026 sales.
ASML reports on Jan. 27, with its first outlook for 2027. That’s when we’ll find out whether chipmakers are ordering any less.
So what is ASML stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
