Key Takeaways for Starbucks Stock as of July 2026
- Twelve buy ratings and four outperforms outweigh 16 holds and just two sells, yet the $106 mean target sits barely 2% above Starbucks stock’s $104 price, a tight consensus band.
- Following the China JV close with Boyu Capital, TIKR’s mid-case model puts Starbucks at $137 by fiscal 2030, a 32% total return worth 7% annualized.
- Undervalued is the read, given Starbucks’ EBIT is projected to grow 25% by fiscal Q4 2026 even after a 9.4% margin quarter that already beat guidance.
Starbucks Reports First Profit Growth in Two Years as Margins Recover
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) posted fiscal second quarter revenue of $9.5 billion on April 28, up 9% year over year. Global comparable sales rose 6.2%, the strongest print in more than two years and the first quarter with growth on both the top and bottom line.
That growth came from a surge in U.S. transactions, up more than 4% as morning traffic returned to fiscal 2022 levels.
Beneath the headline number, consolidated operating margin expanded 110 basis points to 9.4%, lifting operating income to $890 million, the first quarterly margin gain since Q1 fiscal 2024.
That margin turn coincided with a broader turn abroad: all of Starbucks’ top 10 international markets, including China, Japan and South Korea, posted positive comparable sales for the first time in nine quarters.
That international momentum fed directly into CEO Brian Niccol’s framing of the sequencing on the Q2 earnings call: “Q2 is proof our strategy is working.” The follow-through pushed earnings per share to $0.50, up 22% year over year, Starbucks’ first quarter of EPS growth in more than two years.
Beyond the print, Chairman and CEO Brian Niccol told investors at Evercore’s June 9 conference that nearly 70% of U.S. stores now hit 4 or more shots on the company’s Grow scorecard, the operational threshold tied to stronger transaction growth.
Analysts also noticed: TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy in May, lifting its price target to $120 from $106 on the strength of the margin recovery.
Green Apron Service investments, which added labor hours across U.S. stores, annualize in August, a milestone management expects to ease cost comparisons into the back half of fiscal 2026.
That operational lift, layered onto the $2 billion cost savings program, is one leg of the operating leverage story behind fiscal 2026 guidance, raised to $2.25 to $2.45 in earnings per share.
The other leg closed just after the quarter: Starbucks completed its Boyu Capital transaction covering China retail operations, a deal valued at more than $13 billion that delivered $3.1 billion in gross cash proceeds toward debt reduction.
Wall Street Holds Steady on Starbucks Stock Near a $106 Target
Wall Street holds a cautious 12-buy, 16-hold, 2-sell split on Starbucks stock, with four outperform and two underperform ratings rounding out a base of 36 analysts covering the name. The $106 mean target sits barely 2% above the $104 share price, a tight band that signals the Street sees the recent quarter as already reflected in the stock.
TD Cowen’s May upgrade to buy, with a target lifted to $120, remains the most bullish read among recent analyst actions and the one furthest from consensus. The mean has climbed from $93 a year ago to $106 today, tracking Starbucks stock’s rebound from its 52-week low of $78 set last September.
Wall Street Expects SBUX Stock’s EBIT to Climb 25% by Fiscal 2027
Starbucks’ fiscal second quarter EBIT reached $890 million, a 9.4% margin and 24% growth from a year earlier, marking the sharpest profitability swing since the turnaround began in late 2024 under CEO Brian Niccol.
Consensus models fiscal third quarter EBIT at $1.09 billion, a 12% margin and 14% growth from a year earlier, extending the recovery into the seasonally important summer travel and back-to-school quarter. Fiscal fourth quarter estimates climb further to $1.12 billion and a 12% margin, up 25% year over year, the fastest EBIT growth rate of the entire forecast window to that point.
The trajectory holds into fiscal 2027, with EBIT projected at $1.24 billion and a 13% margin in the fiscal first quarter, up 24% year over year and still accelerating from the prior year’s pace. By the fiscal third quarter, consensus lifts that figure to $1.31 billion and a 14% margin, up 20% from a year earlier, the sixth straight quarter of double-digit EBIT growth in the model.
The fiscal third quarter print due July 29, 2026 is the next checkpoint investors are watching closely. A matched 12% EBIT margin validates the consensus path; a miss reopens the case that Wall Street’s flat target already has it right.
TIKR Values SBUX Stock at $137 as Margin Recovery Compounds
TIKR’s mid-case model values Starbucks stock at $137 by fiscal 2030, implying a 32% total return from the current price of $104, or 7% annualized over the next 4.2 years.
That return positions Starbucks stock as a margin-recovery story more than a growth story, with EBIT expansion just one piece of a broader re-rating that includes cost discipline, unit growth and capital returns to shareholders.
The case rests on dynamics already in play: margins turning up for the first time since fiscal 2024, and nearly 70% of U.S. stores now hitting the operational threshold tied to stronger transaction growth. Layer in the $2 billion cost program still ramping through fiscal 2028, and the target looks like a function of execution, not a single metric.
None of that depends on a single quarter of EBIT beating estimates; the target reflects the combination of pricing power, unit growth, loyalty engagement and cost discipline compounding together over time.
Should You Invest in Starbucks Corporation?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
