Key Takeaways
- Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office has to file its third-quarter 13F by Monday, showing what it held on Sept. 30.
- At June 30, Natera was his biggest position by far, and he had added to it, Taiwan Semiconductor and Insmed in the second quarter.
- Analysts’ average price targets sit 28% to 61% above today’s prices for the three.
- Taiwan Semiconductor’s sales keep setting records while its stock has slipped, which makes it the position most worth following him into.
Few investors’ filings get picked apart like Stanley Druckenmiller’s, and his next one is due by Monday, Nov. 16. His Duquesne Family Office filed its latest 13F, for the quarter ended June 30, on the deadline day, Aug. 14. As of June 30, it held $4.35 billion of US stocks across 86 positions.
He was adding to three of his biggest, Natera (NTRA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Insmed (INSM), and all three have moved hard since.
Natera is his biggest bet by far
Natera was Duquesne’s No. 1 position at June 30: 3.19 million shares worth $865 million, or 19.9% of its US stocks. That’s about three times the size of No. 2. Druckenmiller had raised his share count 4% in the second quarter, and the stock is up 18% from its June 30 price.
It’s been a bumpy few weeks, though. Natera sank 14% when CEO Steve Chapman said he’d step down, even as the company beat on its third quarter. That came in November, so Monday’s filing can’t show how Druckenmiller took the news. It can only show whether he held his biggest bet through September.
Analysts’ average price target for Natera has climbed over the past year:
It’s $410 today, up from $224 a year ago and 28% above the latest close, with the 22 analysts’ targets running from $280 to $500. So the Street still sees plenty of room, CEO change and all.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Natera. How many say “Buy”?
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TSMC’s sales keep climbing as the stock slips
Taiwan Semiconductor was No. 2 at June 30: 589,680 shares worth $282 million, or 6.5% of the fund. Druckenmiller raised his share count 19% in the second quarter, and the stock has fallen 13% from its June 30 price since.
The business hasn’t slowed. TSMC’s third-quarter revenue of $46.72 billion beat the top of its own guidance, at a 66.4% gross margin, and October sales rose 59.7% from a year earlier to NT$586.89 billion, its best month of 2026. The stock sank 10% in a chip sell-off on Nov. 5 with no news of its own. (One director, Michael Splinter, bought nearly $300,000 of shares that same day.)
Analysts have kept raising their targets through the year:
The average target is $587, up from $340 a year ago and its highest of the year. That’s 42% above the latest close, and the 21 analysts’ targets run from $440 to $1,000.
Insmed comes with calls attached
Druckenmiller was leaning in hardest on Insmed. At June 30, Duquesne held 1.42 million shares worth $152 million, or 3.5% of the fund, after raising its share count 23% in the second quarter. It also held call options with a notional value of $144 million, nearly as big as the stock position itself.
So far, the bet is paying off. Insmed is up 13% from its June 30 price, helped by a $400 million quarter for Brinsupri as the drug’s US launch keeps beating expectations. The 24 analysts who cover Insmed have an average target of $194, 61% above the latest close.
The calls are what I’d check first on Monday. Whether Duquesne still held them on Sept. 30, and how many, would say a lot about how much conviction Druckenmiller has left in the stock.
The one I’d follow him into
If I could only follow Druckenmiller into one of these, it’d be Taiwan Semiconductor. Its sales just had their best month of the year, analysts’ targets are at a high, and the stock still sits 15% below its 52-week high.
The risk is the spending. TSMC guides to $60 billion to $64 billion of capex this year, mostly for capacity that comes online in 2028 and 2029, and that only pays off if AI demand holds that long.
Keep in mind, too, that Monday’s filing is a snapshot of Sept. 30, and a 13F leaves out shorts, bonds and currencies, which matter a lot for a macro investor like Druckenmiller. The bigger test for TSMC comes with its 2027 guidance in mid-January, and Duquesne’s next 13F follows in mid-February.
So what is Natera stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
