Key Takeaways
- TSMC independent director Michael Splinter bought $299,880 of stock on Nov. 5, the day the chip sell-off hit hardest, and the shares are up 46% from last November’s low.
- The numbers support his buy: TSMC traded at 15x forward earnings at Friday’s close, below its five-year average of 18x, while analysts keep raising estimates.
- The main risk is record spending on new fabs while the CEO plans cautiously for 2027.
- October sales jumped 59.7%, and fourth-quarter results in mid-January are the next real test.
Chip stocks got hammered on Thursday, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) took one of the bigger hits. One of its directors bought into the drop that same day.
Michael Splinter, a TSMC independent director since 2015 and former CEO and chairman of Applied Materials, bought 840 American depositary shares on Nov. 5 at an average of $357.00 each, or $299,880 in all. That’s above the day’s $353.10 close, so he bought into the fall itself. He reported it in a Form 4 filed Monday. The stock closed Monday at $388.62, 9% above his price and 46% above its Nov. 21, 2025 low of $266.82.
TSMC’s Own Numbers Held Up
TSMC sits 20% below the 52-week high of $487.47 it hit on Oct. 5, even though its last report was strong. On Oct. 15, it posted third-quarter revenue of $46.7 billion, above the top of its guidance, and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion. But CEO C.C. Wei also said some markets “are being challenged due to the impact of rising component prices,” and that TSMC is “being prudent in our business planning going into 2027.”
Then came Nov. 5. The Nasdaq fell into correction, and TSMC sank 10%. Bloomberg reported that morning that Micron had paused a $4.5 billion Taiwan plant, and the evening before, Qualcomm, a TSMC customer, had warned about memory costs. TSMC had no news of its own, and rising component costs were the same pressure Wei had flagged three weeks earlier.
He Added 11% to His Stake
The purchase took Splinter’s direct holding to 8,405 ADSs, 11% more than before, worth about $3.3 million at Monday’s close. Insiders sell for plenty of reasons but generally buy for one: they think the stock is too cheap. That’s why insider buying is a signal worth tracking.
TIKR Tracks 35 Analysts on TSMC. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on TSMC, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See TSMC’s Analyst Ratings
Does $357 Add Up?
Analysts expect TSMC’s earnings to keep climbing fast, from $10.65 a share in 2025 to $23.39 in 2027:
They’ve been raising those estimates too: the 2027 figure is up 16% since the end of June. Even so, the stock trades below its usual multiple:
TSMC traded at 15x forward earnings at Friday’s close, against a five-year average of 18x. Splinter paid about 14x, and Monday’s price works out to about 15.5x.
Analysts’ targets kept rising through the sell-off:
The mean target is $587, up from $340 a year ago and 51% above Monday’s close. Even the lowest target, $440, sits well above where Splinter bought.
The Numbers Back Splinter’s TSMC Buy
The main risk is the size of TSMC’s bet. It has guided 2026 capital spending to $60 billion to $64 billion and, on its earnings call, said it expects spending from 2026 to 2028 to be “even more significantly higher” than in the prior three years, supporting capacity expansion scheduled to come online in 2027, 2028 and beyond. If AI spending slows before then, TSMC carries the cost of all that capacity.
Demand hasn’t slowed yet. October sales, out Tuesday, rose 59.7% from a year earlier to NT$586.89 billion (about $18 billion), a 2026 high. Splinter paid about 14x forward earnings for a company whose estimates are still rising, and even at $388.62 the stock looks cheap against its own history.
One director’s $300,000 is a small signal. The bigger one comes in mid-January, when TSMC reports the quarter and gives its first look at 2027.
So What Is TSMC Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
