Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares rose about 6% on Monday after NASA named it one of eight companies that can compete for up to $10 billion of lunar delivery work over 10 years.
- Even if SpaceX won all of it, the contract would pay less per year than SpaceX brought in during an average week of the third quarter.
- Elon Musk says government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX’s total this quarter, as compute rentals and Starlink drive growth.
- The jump looks like relief after the post-midterm selloff, and Starship’s Nov. 13 flight matters more for the stock.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares rose about 6% on Monday after NASA named the company one of eight winners of a lunar delivery contract worth up to $10 billion. Rocket Lab (RKLB) jumped about 10%, even though it didn’t make the list.
It’s a nice win for SpaceX, and a tiny one next to what the company brings in now.
A $10 Billion Pot, Split Eight Ways
NASA named the winners on Saturday, Nov. 7, for CLPS 2, the 10-year follow-on to its program for hiring private companies to fly cargo to the Moon. SpaceX shares the list with Blue Origin and six others, and each still has to win missions order by order.
Even if SpaceX won every dollar, $10 billion over 10 years is $1 billion a year. SpaceX brought in $14.6 billion in the third quarter alone, or about $1.12 billion a week.
Small potatoes.
A 6% move also adds more than $100 billion to SpaceX’s market value, about 10 times the contract’s entire ceiling. And the gap only widens, with analysts expecting revenue of $181 billion in 2027 and $335 billion in 2028:
For a smaller company, $1 billion a year would matter. Rocket Lab’s third-quarter revenue, reported Monday evening, rose 73% to $267.8 million, about $1.07 billion annualized. But it won none of NASA’s pot, the stock slipped after hours, and its bigger Neutron rocket won’t fly until 2027.
Compute and Starlink Pay the Bills
On Nov. 6, Musk replied on X that “government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter,” falling below 5% a year from now. That’s down from 16.6% in the third quarter, though in October he had put the fourth quarter under 5%.
SpaceX’s Super Intelligence segment, mostly AI compute it rents out, brought in $7.56 billion of third-quarter revenue, more than half the total. Starlink’s Connectivity segment earned $2.37 billion of the company’s $2.79 billion in operating income. Quarterly revenue more than tripled, from $4.69 billion in March to $14.6 billion in September:
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Musk also claimed that SpaceX’s revenue “this quarter alone will be substantially higher than NASA’s entire annual budget!” NASA’s annual funding is $24.4 billion. Analysts’ $48.9 billion full-year estimate leaves about $21.8 billion for the fourth quarter, so Musk is calling for a big beat. The next quarter should clear it easily: SpaceX guides first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion.
What Starship Gets Out of NASA
CLPS 2 only makes SpaceX eligible to bid. NASA also gave it a Starship mission, under an existing lunar logistics contract, to launch communications satellites to cislunar space in 2028. Starship’s costs sit in the Space segment, which lost $7 million in the third quarter as R&D rose 44% to $1.23 billion. That helps Starship, though NASA didn’t disclose the mission’s value.
The nearer test is Flight 15 on Friday, Nov. 13, pending FAA approval: SpaceX’s first try at catching both Starship and Super Heavy back at the launch site.
Conclusion
Monday’s gain follows a selloff that cut SpaceX stock about 12.5% in two sessions after the midterms. The award is too small to change what SpaceX is worth. Compute pricing is what counts, and Musk conceded on Nov. 8 that “if compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop.” Fourth-quarter results will show whether a single quarter really out-earned NASA.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
