Key Takeaways
- SoFi Technologies stock jumped 13% after record third-quarter adjusted net revenue of $1.37 billion and a first 2027 outlook of $6.4 billion of revenue and $0.90 of EPS.
- CEO Anthony Noto built 2026 guidance around two rate cuts and got a hike instead, yet SoFi raised its outlook because new members and products keep driving its growth.
- Lending made up 59% of third-quarter revenue, so the main risk is that more hikes eventually hit loan values, loan demand or credit losses, and none of that has happened yet.
- The stock trades at 2.2x tangible book value, below its 3.0x average over the past three years.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) jumped 13% on Tuesday after a record quarter and a raised outlook. The rate backdrop for 2026 has gone almost exactly the opposite way from how its CEO planned it.
Shareholders needed the relief. The stock had lost half its value from its peak a year earlier, and rising rates were a big part of what the report had to answer.
Anthony Noto summed it up in a post on X after the report:
“Our original 2026 guidance assumed two rate cuts. Instead: one rate hike and today we are positioned for two more this year.”
He added that he’s now as confident in SoFi’s growth with rates high as he would be with them low.
That’s a bold claim for a lender, and the quarter backs up most of it.
TIKR tracks 26 analysts on SoFi. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SoFi, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SoFi’s Analyst Ratings
Members and products did the heavy lifting
SoFi ended the third quarter with 17.1 million members, up 35% from a year earlier, and those members use 26.7 million products. In 2018 it had 650,000 members and one main business.
Loan originations hit a record $16.9 billion, up 71%, led by $12.6 billion of personal loans. Adjusted net revenue rose 44% to a record $1.37 billion, and financial services revenue rose 25% to $525 million.
SoFi has grown like this for years, whatever rates were doing. Its revenue more than tripled from 2021 to 2025, right through the Fed’s hikes in 2022 and 2023.
The outlook went up anyway
SoFi raised its 2026 guidance to about $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue, up from $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion. It also raised its adjusted EPS guidance to $0.61 from $0.60. And it gave its first outlook for 2027: $6.4 billion of revenue, $1.28 billion of net income (a 20% margin) and $0.90 of EPS.
That revenue target is above the $6.14 billion analysts expected before the report. The EPS target would be about 48% growth from this year’s guide.
Analysts now expect EPS to more than double from 2025 to 2027, reaching $0.88, just shy of SoFi’s own $0.90.
That 2027 estimate was $0.82 before the report. So a hike SoFi never planned for didn’t stop analysts from raising their numbers.
Higher rates still have to show up somewhere
But SoFi’s growth leans on lending more than ever. Lending made up 59% of adjusted net revenue in the third quarter, up from 51% a year earlier. SoFi holds its loans at fair value, so rising rates hit their value directly. Its annual report says a 1-percentage-point rise in rates would have cut the value of its rate-sensitive assets by $766 million at the end of 2025.
So far, there’s no sign of trouble. The personal-loan charge-off rate fell to 2.26% from 2.62% in the second quarter. And Noto said on SoFi’s third-quarter call, “We are not seeing evidence of a slowdown in how many members borrow, spend… save, or invest.”
Two more hikes, though, would land on a bigger loan book, and neither demand nor losses has had to absorb them yet. If the damage starts to show, that $0.90 could come down.
The market isn’t giving SoFi credit yet
Noto planned for two cuts, got a hike, and SoFi still raised its numbers all the way through 2027. That’s the clearest sign yet that its growth doesn’t depend on the Fed.
Even so, the stock trades well below its usual valuation. At 2.2x tangible book value as of Tuesday, SoFi sits below its 3.0x average over the past three years and at about a third of its 6.4x peak a year ago.
My take: the market is still pricing SoFi as if it needs rate cuts to grow, and this quarter showed it doesn’t. At this multiple, I think that’s an opportunity.
Of course, rates are still moving the wrong way for SoFi’s loan book. Fourth-quarter results, expected in late January, will show whether more hikes start to dent loan values or credit.
So what is SoFi stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what SoFi could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
