Key Takeaways
- Replimune shares jumped 17% after more than 15 institutions prescribed TUDRIQEV in its first three weeks.
- The uptake suggests doctors will make room for a therapy injected into tumors.
- TUDRIQEV reaches tumors Amgen’s Imlygic isn’t shown to treat, and it’s given with Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo.
- Cash rose to $307.8 million, and the next test is the first sales figure.
Replimune Group (REPL) shares jumped 17% today on its first update on the TUDRIQEV melanoma launch.
The launch reaches two bigger names. TUDRIQEV is an oncolytic virus, like Imlygic from Amgen (AMGN), and it’s given with Opdivo from Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).
A fast start
“The response from physicians has been enthusiastic,” said CEO Sushil Patel.
The numbers back him up. More than 15 institutions have prescribed TUDRIQEV since its first delivery to patients on Oct. 6, and more than 70% of its 200 priority accounts are engaged.
That’s fast for a therapy injected into tumors, sometimes deep in the lung or liver.
There’s no sales figure yet, and analysts expect revenue to go from $28.9 million in the year ending March 2027 to $173 million the year after:
With no sales to test them against, today’s update shouldn’t move them much.
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Good news for Opdivo, a rounding error for Amgen
Imlygic’s label covers tumors in or under the skin and in lymph nodes, and it hasn’t been shown to work on organ tumors. Amgen folds its sales into “other products”, a $351 million group of 13 drugs in the June quarter. TUDRIQEV can take some of Imlygic’s patients and reach others, and Amgen will barely feel it.
Bristol gains a little. Every TUDRIQEV patient gets Opdivo too, after a PD-1 regimen has failed. That’s a small new use for a drug whose U.S. sales fell 6% to $1.42 billion in the June quarter. Will management mention it when Bristol reports tomorrow?
The money’s there, for now
Replimune’s cash fell to $195 million by the end of June:
Then an August stock sale raised about $141 million, net, and a $15 million debt draw lifted cash to $307.8 million at the end of September.
Management says that funds more than twelve months, launch included. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised by another raise. Launches are expensive!
The enthusiasm looks real
My take: three weeks in, this launch is working, and its wider label reaches patients Imlygic can’t.
Of course, the first sales figure won’t come until the December quarter’s report. And keeping TUDRIQEV’s accelerated approval may depend on IGNYTE-3, still enrolling.
So what is Replimune stock actually worth?
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