Key Takeaways for Simon Property Group Stock as of August 2026
- Guidance Raised: Simon lifted 2026 FFO guidance to $13.20-$13.30, up from $12.73.
- Double-Digit Beat: Revenue reached $1.66 billion, 2.9% above the $1.61 billion Street estimate and up 20.3% YoY, while adjusted FFO per share of $3.39 topped estimates by 18.2% and rose 26.5% YoY.
- Saks Retenanting: The 1 million square feet of bankrupt Saks Off Fifth space, once generating $18 million in rent, is being re-let at roughly $44 million.
- Leasing Spreads Widen: New leases signed year to date carry initial base rent 17% above expiring space, even as tenant allowances fell 12% YoY, CEO Eli Simon said.
Simon didn’t want the Saks Off Fifth boxes back, but retenanting them at $44 million versus $18 million tells its own story. Dig into the leasing data on Simon Property Group for free →
Simon Property Group Turns Bankrupt Saks Boxes Into a Rent Windfall
Simon Property Group (SPG) grew domestic property NOI 8.5% year over year in the second quarter, the fastest clip management has posted in recent quarters, and Simon Property Group stock closed at $220.55 heading into an earnings call that beat on nearly every line. Revenue reached $1.66 billion, 2.9% ahead of the $1.61 billion Street estimate and up 20.3% year over year. Real estate FFO climbed to $3.29 per share from $3.05 a year earlier, a 7.9% gain.
The company signed more than 1,200 leases across 4.8 million square feet during the quarter. New deals made up 28% of that space, and initial base rent on those new leases is running 17% above what tenants previously paid, year to date. Tenant allowances, the cash incentives Simon pays to sign new tenants, fell 12% over the same stretch. Rising rent paired with falling incentive cost is the mechanism behind the quarter’s margin lift.
Nowhere is that pricing power clearer than in the boxes Simon got back from Saks Off Fifth’s bankruptcy. CEO Eli Simon addressed the swap directly on the Q2 earnings call: “we’ll basically take the $18 million and turn it into $44 million.” Roughly half of the replacement leases are signed, with the rest in final discussions. Because the space came back in mid-May instead of earlier in the year, most of that upside lands in 2027 rather than this year’s guide.
Occupancy held at 96% across the malls and premium outlet portfolio even after absorbing that 1 million square feet, matching the level from the first quarter. Mills occupancy, the outlet-only segment, finished at 98.8%. Average base rent for malls and premium outlets rose 6.3% year over year, and occupancy cost sat at 12.5%, still low enough to support further rent increases without squeezing retailers out.
Management used that combination of occupancy, spread, and Saks upside to raise 2026 real estate FFO guidance to $13.20 to $13.30 per share, up from $12.73 in 2025. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to $2.25 per share, a 4.7% increase, and repurchased 793,000 shares plus 238,000 limited partnership units for $211 million at an average price of $205.10.
Simon closed the quarter with $9.3 billion in liquidity and net debt to EBITDA below 5.0 times, funding $1.07 billion of active development at a blended 9% yield. Higher interest expense remains a drag: it cut $0.06 per share from FFO in the quarter, and CFO Brian McDade flagged another $0.20 per share of that headwind still to come this year. Still, the leasing engine is outrunning the financing cost for now.
Simon turned $18 million of Saks rent into $44 million without adding a single square foot. See the full leasing breakdown on Simon Property Group for free →
TIKR Values Simon Property Group Stock at $411, Pricing In Sustained Leasing Power
TIKR’s mid-case model values Simon Property Group stock at $411 by December 2030, implying an 87% total return from the current price of $221, or 15% annualized over 4.4 years.
A 15% annualized return on Simon Property Group stock outpaces what mature mall landlords have historically delivered to shareholders, and the leasing spreads from the call are the mechanism management is counting on to close that gap.
The math already showed up this quarter: 17% higher rent on new leases, tenant allowances down 12%, and a Saks Off Fifth swap that more than doubles rent on a million square feet the company didn’t ask to get back. If that repricing keeps compounding anywhere near an 8.5% NOI clip, the $411 target reads less like a stretch and more like a straight-line extension of what’s already happening on the ground.
Should You Invest in Simon Property Group?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
