Key Takeaways
- Shopify stock has gained 30% since June 30, driven by an August 5 earnings beat and a September 21 Meta deal.
- Analysts rate it 31 buys, 11 outperforms, 11 holds and 1 sell, and the $173 mean target sits 17% above the close, down from a 30% gap on June 30.
- TIKR’s model implies 170% total return to $400 by December 2030, or 26% annualized.
Check Shopify’s target history on TIKR for free →
Shopify Stock Is Up 30% Since June 30, Powered by Earnings and Meta
Shopify (SHOP) stock has climbed 30% since June 30 to a $148 close on September 29, and two events account for the run.
The first landed on August 5. Shopify reported June-quarter revenue up 34% to $3.58 billion and gross merchandise volume (GMV, the total value of goods sold on its platform) up 32% to $116 billion, the fifth straight quarter of GMV growth above 30%. It then guided third-quarter revenue growth to the low thirties, against an analyst estimate of 26%. The shares closed 16.5% higher in Toronto that day.
The second landed on September 21, when Shopify and Meta said Meta’s Muse AI agent will complete purchases across Shopify’s store network. US-listed shares closed 7.3% higher. A 5.8% morning slide followed on fears that Meta Pay would compete with Shop Pay, and Rosenblatt called that concern overblown.
Asked on the Q2 call how Shopify earns from AI channels, President Harley Finkelstein said “the agentic transactions carry the exact economics as an online store transaction. There’s no new fees.” Each Muse checkout therefore adds volume at Shopify’s existing economics. Growth confirmed in August and distribution added in September explain the run, and the Street has repriced only part of it.
Analyze Shopify’s GMV and revenue trend on TIKR for free →
Shopify Stock’s $173 Mean Target Trails the Price Run, Shrinking the Gap to 17%
Shopify stock carries 31 buy ratings, 11 outperforms, 11 holds and 1 sell, and its $173 mean target sits 17% above the $148 close. Separately, 48 analysts publish a price target, ranging from $120 to $220.
On June 30, the mean target of $148 sat 30% above a $114 close. Analysts have since lifted it 17% to $173 while the stock gained 30%, so Shopify stock now trades at the level the Street targeted one quarter ago. Buy ratings grew from 28 to 31 and holds slipped from 12 to 11, but targets followed the price up rather than leading it.
TIKR Values Shopify Stock at $400, Pricing In 170% Upside by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Shopify at $400 by December 2030, implying 170% total return from the current price of $148, or 26% annualized.
That target sits more than double the Street’s $173 mean, so TIKR assigns Shopify stock a far longer runway than analysts price today.
The gap between $148 and $400 exists because targets have chased the stock while the quarter and the Meta deal describe growth durable enough to compound.
Run your own Shopify valuation on TIKR for free →
So what is Shopify Inc. stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Shopify could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
