Key Takeaways
- Robinhood’s CFO called the race among brokerages for shares in Anthropic’s IPO, which could be the largest ever, “a food fight.”
- Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell 55% in the third quarter, and its total revenue growth slowed to 12%.
- Robinhood is named in Anthropic’s IPO filing alongside its rivals, and a Coinbase executive says it would like to open up that kind of access too.
- Robinhood trades at 27x forward earnings, below its three-year average of 37x, so a big allocation that brings in active accounts that last could go a long way.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) wants a big piece of what could be the largest IPO ever, and it isn’t being shy about it.
Anthropic filed on Oct. 26 for an IPO set for before Thanksgiving, and every retail brokerage wants shares for its customers. Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma described the scramble in a Bloomberg Television interview on Monday:
“It’s a food fight out there, so we’re going to let our demand speak for itself, and then let the companies decide.”
Robinhood is in. Anthropic’s amended filing names it among the brokerages that will offer shares to retail customers, alongside Charles Schwab (SCHW), Fidelity, SoFi (SOFI) and Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade. The fight is over how big a slice each one gets. All five, Robinhood included, got their eligible customers some SpaceX (SPCX) stock when it went public in June.
And Coinbase (COIN) would like a way in, too. Antonio García Martínez, a director at Base, Coinbase’s blockchain network, said on the MTS podcast this week that “if Anthropic has its IPO and starts ripping 3x, you know what, you can participate in that.” (He added that Coinbase has nothing to announce yet.)
For Robinhood, the timing couldn’t be better.
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Robinhood needs a new engine
Analysts expect Robinhood’s earnings to jump 40% next year, after barely growing this year:
That’s a lot of growth to find. Winning IPO shares would only push those estimates higher if the new accounts keep trading afterward.
Crypto won’t supply that growth right now. Crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 million in the third quarter, and total revenue growth slowed to 12%, from 32% in the second quarter. Earnings missed too: EPS of $0.51 came in under the $0.55 analysts expected.
Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, explained why that hurts on The Compound and Friends the night Robinhood reported: “Options trading is big, but crypto is the thing.” On revenue, though, crypto has already slipped behind. Event contracts brought in $173 million in the quarter and options $399 million, against $120 million from crypto.
A day-one trade on a record IPO
Paisley Nardini, head of investment strategy at Tema ETFs, said on Bloomberg Surveillance this week that “Anthropic would be the largest IPO that would come to market ever.”
And retail is getting a bigger slice of deals like that. Verma told Bloomberg Businessweek Daily that retail historically got 1% to 5% of IPOs, and that companies now ask whether they can offer 10% or 20%. SpaceX wanted 15% to 20% for retail investors, he said.
Plus: Anthropic should give Robinhood’s customers something to trade from the first minute. Kevin O’Leary passed on his SpaceX allocation because he had to hold the shares for 30 days. On Anthropic, he wrote on X: “I expect it to be liquid from day one, and that changes the opportunity.”
That’s what a trading app wants: money coming in to chase the shares, and trading once they list. Verma’s pitch to issuers is that retail is now 20% to 25% of the equities market, so it deserves a bigger slice.
The new accounts have to stick
An allocation is still one deal. If it brings in accounts that buy one stock and go quiet, Robinhood gets a good quarter and little else.
Robinhood is already losing more customers. Churned customers rose to 1.7 million in 2025, from 0.9 million in 2024, against 2.5 million new funded customers, its annual report shows. And hot IPOs can cool fast: SpaceX fell 20% from its peak within a week of listing. If Anthropic does the same, plenty of first-time buyers could sour on the app that sold them the shares.
The stock is priced for disappointment
Michael Batnick, Brown’s co-host and Ritholtz’s director of research, put the tension well on the same episode: “I think Robinhood’s business is in great shape. The stock looks really ugly.”
Robinhood trades at 27x forward earnings, well below its three-year average of 37x:
(It has been cheaper, though: the multiple hit 18x in September 2024.)
Frankly, I think Robinhood is right to fight this hard. It needs a reason for retail investors to deposit and trade while crypto cools, and a record AI listing that trades freely from day one is about as good a reason as there is. If it wins a big allocation and those accounts keep trading, 27x looks cheap for a company analysts expect to grow earnings that fast next year.
Of course, Anthropic and its banks decide how much retail gets, so Robinhood won’t know its share until the deal prices. After that, the fourth-quarter report early next year will show whether the new accounts stayed.
So what is Robinhood stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
