Key Takeaways
- American Express is down 12% in 2026 but up 7.5% in the past month. It has made back the 3.7% drop that followed a third quarter in which it raised its full-year EPS guidance.
- Most of that raise came from a one-time gain, but the adjusted outlook still moved up, and analysts expect EPS to grow 13% in 2027.
- The stock’s forward P/E has fallen from 23.1x in December 2025 to 16.9x, so the discount is almost all in the multiple.
- Slower revenue growth is the main risk, and the fourth-quarter report in late January is the next test.
American Express (AXP) is down 12% in 2026, but it’s up 7.5% in the past month, even though shares fell 3.7% on the day it reported its latest quarter.
That Oct. 23 report raised its full-year earnings guidance, and the stock has since made back the drop. At least 10 analysts weighed in over the following week, with targets from $320 to $425. Most sit above the Nov. 3 close of $325.50.
The raise is smaller than it looks
Third-quarter revenue rose 9% to a record $20.1 billion, and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $4.68. Reported EPS was $5.42, helped by a $982 million pretax gain on the sale of its stake in Global Business Travel Group.
Management raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $18.30- $18.60, up from $17.30- $17.90, and stood by its call for 10% revenue growth.
Most of that raise is the gain, which adds $0.70 a share to the new range after a restructuring charge. On an adjusted basis, guidance is $17.60- $17.90. That’s a higher floor than the old range with the same ceiling.
The business behind it looks healthy. Billed business rose 8% to $454.0 billion, and the net write-off rate fell to 1.8%, down from 1.9% a year ago.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on American Express. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on American Express, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See American Express’ Analyst Ratings
The earnings estimates held up
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $17.82 this year, near the top of that adjusted range, then $20.20 in 2027 and $23.21 in 2028:
That’s 13% growth in 2027 and 15% in 2028. A quarter that raised the adjusted floor gives analysts little reason to cut.
What has changed is what investors will pay for those earnings. American Express trades at 16.9x forward earnings. That’s down from a five-year high of 23.1x in December 2025 and slightly below its 17.4x five-year average:
The multiple has dropped 27% from that peak, and the stock is 16% below its 52-week high. The difference is earnings estimates rising while the multiple fell.
Revenue is the sticking point
Citi, Evercore ISI and Morgan Stanley kept their Hold ratings after the report. Citi and Barclays trimmed their targets, to $335 and $340.
Revenue growth slowed to 9% in the third quarter, from 10% in the second, and came in a bit below Wall Street’s estimate. Commercial spending rose just 3%, or 5% without the co-brand portfolios American Express exited. Part of the earnings beat also came from a lower tax rate: 18.1%, against 24.1% a year ago, thanks to a one-time tax benefit worth $0.29 a share.
Still, analysts expect revenue to rise 10% to $79.4 billion this year and about 9% a year after that:
Fairly priced, and still growing
J.P. Morgan ($365), BMO Capital ($380) and KBW ($425) kept their Buy ratings, and Morgan Stanley’s Hold has a $380 target too.
The rebound has a real reason behind it. American Express is growing earnings at a mid-teens rate, its credit is getting better, and it trades a little below its usual multiple. Returning to that average would add only about 3%, though, so most of any gain from here has to come from earnings growth.
The next test is the fourth-quarter report in late January, when American Express usually gives its first outlook for the coming year. If revenue growth slows again, the Hold camp will look right.
So what is American Express stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what American Express could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value American Express for free
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
