Key Takeaways
- Oklo fell 14% from Oct. 27 to Nov. 3 to a new 52-week low with no news of its own, as AI stocks and nuclear peers like Cameco sold off.
- Its own funding gap matters more: analysts see $6.3 billion of free cash flow going out from 2026 through 2030, about double the $3.0 billion of cash and securities it held at June 30.
- Third-quarter results before the open on Nov. 6 should show its spending, its stock sales and whether its first plant has a cost.
Oklo (OKLO) fell 14% from its Oct. 27 close to its Nov. 3 close, finishing at a fresh 52-week low with no news of its own. It slid alongside the AI trade and the rest of the nuclear group, Cameco (CCJ) included.
Blame the AI trade
Most of the drop came in two sessions. On Oct. 30, disappointing tech earnings set off a sell-off in AI stocks over how much companies are spending on AI, and nuclear names went with them. On Nov. 2, the group slid again without any company-specific news to explain it.
Cameco is down 12% over the same stretch, though it did report a weaker third quarter on Oct. 30. A planned outage at its Key Lake mill cut production, and earnings from its Westinghouse stake fell. It still generated $1.2 billion (Canadian) of adjusted EBITDA in the first nine months of 2026. Should a profitable uranium miner trade like a reactor developer with almost no sales?
Wall Street’s targets keep falling
B. Riley cut its Oklo target to $61 from $92 on Oct. 28. After the close on Nov. 2, Wedbush assumed coverage at Outperform with a $36 target, down from the firm’s earlier $110, and the stock still set a new 52-week low on Nov. 3.
The average target has fallen to $65 from $105 at the start of 2026, and analysts expect almost no revenue before 2028:
Those estimates haven’t moved with the stock. A first cost for Aurora-INL, Oklo’s Idaho plant, or a signed power contract would move them.
Shareholders are still footing the bill
Until then, Oklo pays for its reactors with new stock. Weighted diluted shares climbed to 146 million in fiscal 2025, from 98.9 million in fiscal 2024:
The bill keeps growing. In August, management raised its 2026 plant-spending guidance to $400 million- $500 million, from $350 million- $450 million. On Sept. 11 it opened a new program to sell up to $1.0 billion of stock at market prices.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
What Friday has to show
Oklo reports before the open on Friday, Nov. 6. Watch the cash it used, the stock it sold, and whether management finally puts a cost on Aurora-INL.
The broad market drove most of the drop since Oct. 27, but the selling doesn’t look overdone. Until a customer or lender helps pay for a plant, more stock sales look likely. Wedbush’s $36 fits that funding picture better than the Street’s $65. Friday’s numbers are a better reason to buy than a cheaper share price.
Of course, a signed power contract with its Ohio data-center customer would change that math in a hurry.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
