Key Takeaways
- Robinhood’s October crypto trading volume fell 48% from a year earlier to $17.0 billion, extending the slump that hurt third-quarter profit.
- Net deposits reached $15.1 billion in October, helped by about $6 billion from the Dell family’s contribution to Trump Accounts.
- Third-quarter revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42 billion, but operating expenses grew 16% and diluted EPS fell 16% to $0.51.
- November operating data, likely due in mid-December, will show whether crypto activity has stabilized ahead of the fourth-quarter report.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) just packed two very different stories into one monthly report. October data released on November 12 showed crypto trading volume down 48% from a year earlier to $17.0 billion.
Yet the money kept coming. Net deposits reached $15.1 billion in the month, a 46% annualized growth rate against September platform assets.
That split defines Robinhood right now. Customers keep handing over assets, but they are trading crypto far less. A year ago, crypto brought in more than twice as much revenue.
The third quarter told a similar tale. Robinhood posted record revenue on October 27, yet profit missed Wall Street estimates and the shares fell 7% in after-hours trading.
Crypto keeps cooling into October
Crypto was the weak spot in an otherwise steady October:
- The Robinhood app’s crypto volume fell 51% year over year to $6.8 billion, while Bitstamp dropped 45%.
- Event contracts traded jumped 136% from a year earlier to 5.9 billion.
- Margin balances rose 39% year over year to $22.9 billion.
Equity volume was up just 2% from a year ago, and options contracts rose 8%. Total platform assets slipped 3% from September to $383 billion.
About $6 billion of October deposits came from the Dell family’s contribution to Trump Accounts. So the organic deposit figure was closer to $9 billion.
The quarterly revenue line shows how the company has absorbed that crypto drag so far.
Third-quarter revenue still hit a record $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year.
Prediction markets now outearn crypto
The mix shift is real. Event contracts revenue climbed more than sixfold to $173 million in the third quarter, while crypto revenue dropped 55% to $120 million.
Options revenue rose 31% to $399 million, and equities revenue grew 41% to $121 million. Meanwhile, other revenues jumped 61% to $142 million on Trump Account service fees and Gold subscriptions. Gold members rose 34% to 5.2 million.
CFO Shiv Verma called it the company’s “highest quarter ever for revenues” in the earnings release.
But one big line is moving the wrong way. What happens when lower rates and weaker securities lending hit the interest book?
Net interest revenues fell 9% to $415 million in the third quarter. October did not help, since securities lending revenue fell 43% year over year to $34 million.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Robinhood. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Robinhood, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Robinhood’s Analyst Ratings
Spending is outrunning revenue growth
Total operating expenses rose 16% to $739 million in the third quarter. Credit card loss provisions, Trump Accounts and marketing drove most of the increase.
As a result, net income fell 14% to $476 million and diluted EPS slid 16% to $0.51. That included a $67 million unrealized loss on Robinhood Ventures Fund I, worth $0.07 per share.
Management did trim its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based pay. The top end fell by $25 million, leaving a range of $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion. Still, margins have been slipping…
Operating margin came in around 48%, down from roughly 50% a year earlier.
My take: The deposit engine looks healthy, and prediction markets have earned a real seat in the revenue mix. However, crypto activity fell again in October, and costs keep growing faster than revenue. I’d want to see the expense trim show up in margins before calling the slide a bargain.
The next checkpoint is November’s operating data, which should arrive in mid-December. It will show whether crypto volumes have found a floor ahead of the fourth-quarter report expected in February.
So what is Robinhood stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
