Key Stats for Palantir Stock
- Current Price: $172.01
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,170
- Street Target: ~$190
- Potential Total Return: ~579%
- Annualized IRR: ~55% / year
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What Happened?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed August 7 at $172.01, up 10.32% in a single session and roughly 37% above its August 3 close, the last print before the company reported Q2 results after the bell that evening. That day’s move had nothing to do with the company. Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy rating and lifted its price target to $255, and the stock ran on it, on volume about 75% above its three-month average.
That leaves buyers today with an uncomfortable question. The quarter was extraordinary, analysts are racing to raise targets, and the stock has already moved. Paying $172 now means paying for a story the market has spent two weeks repricing, and the question is whether there is room left or whether the easy money went to whoever bought during the spring drawdown, when the stock sat near $106.
The Growth $172 Already Takes for Granted
At the August 7 close, Palantir trades at roughly 40 times next-twelve-months revenue and about 91 times NTM earnings. Those are not multiples the market hands out for hope. They assume the 149% U.S. commercial growth rate keeps compounding for years, not quarters. The quarter itself gave the multiple something to stand on: revenue grew 93% year over year to $1.935 billion, U.S. commercial revenue reached $764 million, adjusted free cash flow hit $1.22 billion at a 63% margin, and management raised full-year guidance to a midpoint of $8.154 billion, the largest full-year raise in company history.
The peer comparison makes the premium concrete. Among software names on the TIKR Competitors page, Microsoft trades at 9.6 times NTM revenue, ServiceNow at 7.4 times, Oracle at 6.3 times, and SAP at 4.8 times. Palantir at 40 times is not in the same postal code as any of them. That gap is defensible only if its growth is in a different category, which, for now, holds, since none of those names is growing revenue near 90%. The risk is that the law of large numbers pulls Palantir’s growth toward the pack, and at 40 times sales, even a slowdown to a merely excellent 40% could compress the valuation multiple hard.
The Street is more split than the headline targets suggest. The mean analyst target sits around $190, barely above the current price, even as Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora carries a $255 one-year target and argues the U.S. commercial business still has “a world to win.” On TIKR’s latest Street data, buy-side ratings dominate at 20 Buys against just 1 Underperform and 1 Sell, but 8 Holds sit in the middle, the analysts signaling the price has caught up to the fundamentals.
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The Sovereignty Bet Underneath the Growth
The reason the growth might not decelerate the way skeptics expect sits in what management spent the call describing. Palantir’s pitch has shifted from selling AI software to selling what CEO Alex Karp calls AI sovereignty, meaning customers owning the data, logic, and model weights that their competitive edge depends on rather than renting them from a frontier lab.
CTO Shyam Sankar put the technical version bluntly: “Last quarter, I said tokens are the new coal and AIP is the train. Now our customers can build their own locomotives.” That framing explains the quarter’s harder numbers, including 157% net dollar retention and 220 deals worth $1 million or more, 73 of them above $10 million, both records. Customers are expanding rather than switching. A buyer at $172 is underwriting whether that positioning is a durable moat or a marketing frame that competitors eventually copy. Karp himself joked on the call that Palantir could “meet our guide next year if we get paid for all the people copying us,” which is either confidence or a tell.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $172.01
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,170
- Potential Total Return: ~579%
- Annualized IRR: ~55% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Palantir stock (It’s free!) >>>
The case rests on two revenue drivers: U.S. commercial growth holding well above 100% in the near term before moderating, and government revenue compounding as programs like Maven expand across the Joint Force. The margin driver is operating leverage, with the model assuming adjusted operating margin holds near current levels as revenue outpaces technical hiring and cloud costs. The primary risk is the one the multiple already screams: any deceleration in U.S. commercial growth, paired with the assumed multiple compression, could gut the return even if the business performs well. The upside is that Palantir sustains hypergrowth long enough for earnings to grow into the multiple. The downside is that growth normalizes faster than expected and the market reprices a 40-times-sales stock toward its peers, in which case the $172 entry becomes the problem rather than the opportunity.
Conclusion
The next real test is Q3 earnings, expected November 2 after close, with management guiding to $2.16 billion in revenue at the midpoint. Watch U.S. commercial growth specifically. Hold above 130% and the acceleration thesis that justifies 40 times sales stays intact, making the chase look rational. Slip toward 100% or below and the first crack arrives while the valuation still assumes perfection, and buyers at $172 will feel every point of multiple compression. The quarter was a blowout. The price now demands the next one be too.
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Should You Invest in Palantir?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Palantir, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Palantir alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
